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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: GREENLAW4-7 who wrote (1051)	10/21/2001 12:35:01 PM
From: X Y Zebra	Respond to of 99280

the current fiscal and monetary enviroment are the recipe for High Unemployment, High Inflation which equals HYPER-INFLATION! That sounds like Argentina to me... (except, we would need higher interest rates too). If we have this overcapacity, wouldn't we have to get rid of the same before we would be in an inflationary environment ? This, I would assume that not only the US economy would have to improve, but in addition, the world economy would also have to improve... no ? Perhaps I am confused, but the reason we may "get away with this" without too much damage is that there is no "better" competing country and/or currency, (other than the US and the US Dollar). i.e. sort of lowering the common denominator. What I mean to say, everybody seems to be in the cr*pper and/or heading deeper into it. So, the "lesser of all evils" seems to be still the US, hence, although we won't be as better off as we used to, yet because there is nothing better out there funds get directed into the market... and so we get swings between views of doom and .... well, "not so bad after all doom". Oil prices seem to be helping along, as it has been happening, oil prices are getting lower... This has to be non-inflacionary and also a form of incentive (like a tax cut) since everything related to oil would become cheaper. Lastly... What would happen if Argentina were to default, as it has been rumored? Me ? I am not convinced, but I am really confused. -g-

To: GREENLAW4-7 who wrote (1051)	10/21/2001 2:06:47 PM
From: Joan Osland Graffius	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99280

green, >>I suspect Long Bond will head north and be above 8% ny the end of 2002. Help me to understand how this can happen with the debt load of the US consumer, corporations and government. Also how to we get inflation with the global over capacity. I could see inflation if we have a oil or some other commodity problem Right now it seems line Russia is going to export more oil and will cause OPEC to have less power than before. Also China seems to be developing its oil resources with success. The boys that have been there done that like Sir John Templeton are recommending buying AAA rated non callable long term debt. This does not sound to me like they believe inflation is going to be a problem. BWDIK Joan