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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bill Jackson who wrote (61021)	10/29/2001 7:01:55 PM
From: wanna_bmw	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 275872

Bill, Re: "If flash stays down and the hammer is broken AMD is done. If flash comes back and makes some money then AMD will have more time, and may be able to make the hammer work perfectly. If, however the hammer works and few adopt the ia64 then AMD might just kick ass for while. If flash also comes back, .....look out Intel. So it all depends on the hammer." From what you say, it sounds like it's not only Hammer, but also AMD's flash division, and also future screw-ups on Intel's part before AMD can be successful. What's wrong with AMD's flash business, anyway? They reported a huge decrease in revenue from that, yet Intel was up from last quarter. Did AMD lose a lot of their flash market share (Intel seems to think so, according to the CC)? But what about Intel products? What if Northwood gets an appreciable increase in performance, as well as much better frequencies? What if the i845 with DDR ends up performing as good as RDRAM? What if Intel is successful with Hyperthreaded Xeons? What if McKinley ends up impressing the industry and redeeming the Itanium? What if the networking and communications markets recover, and that gives Intel a huge boost in their "other" businesses? It sounds like there are a lot of "ifs", which translates to a lot of risk when it comes to buying AMD stock. I'll not ignore the possibility of Hammer being very successful for AMD, but neither will I ignore the possibility that Intel will execute better as well. You should really consider both sides of the coin as well. wanna_bmw

To: Bill Jackson who wrote (61021)	10/29/2001 7:04:03 PM
From: Tenchusatsu	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 275872

Bill, <In addition the video card problems with the i845 spell big trouble for Intel.> Who else has seen this besides Van? And whatever happened to that Pentium 4 throttling issue he and Bert McComas had been pursuing earlier this year? Tenchusatsu

To: Bill Jackson who wrote (61021)	10/29/2001 10:13:39 PM
From: niceguy767	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 275872

Bill: INTC is now at the precipice. For the past year INTC has thrown money with reckless abandon at the P4 distribution channels and yet P4 has not come close to targets while at the same time Athy has maintained its market share. By at the precipice, I mean that INTC is now flirting with the prospect of red ink as every P4 price decline costs INTC at least 3 times what it costs AMD. A significant dip into red ink by INTC may make the marketing prospects for P4 even more of an enigma for INTC as the marketplace might attribute (correctly?) the stumbling P4 with INTC's red ink for the first time in 15 years. Saddled with such a negative association and reinforced by price/performance inferiority, will not augment in any way the already sputtering P4 marketing campaign. Gonna be interesting to see if q4 increased volumes can offset the price reduction costs for both AMD and INTC. The next 6 months should surely result in altered market share readings. I like Athy's chances given its proven successful track record of the past 2 years...