Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Rambus (RMBS) - Eagle or Penguin -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: JD_Canuck who wrote (79555)	11/5/2001 12:28:44 AM
From: JD_Canuck	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 93625

I have to wonder about these conclusions: tomshardware.com What value does Tom attribute to the instability factor? Personally....it's far more important to me than any other single factor, especially when the pricing differences are relatively small. This Christmas should be interesting, setting the stage for the next round of market share arguments.

To: JD_Canuck who wrote (79555)	11/5/2001 1:10:59 AM
From: Bilow	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 93625

Hi JD_Canuck, Welcome back; Re: "Do you have any idea why RDRAM pricing started rising while DDR continued the long endless decline?" DDR is made by lots of memory makers on the same lines as SDRAM, so when SDRAM pricing entered the "long endless decline" DDR pricing did too. By contrast, RDRAM is a niche memory made by few memory makers using specialized equipment, and consequently RDRAM pricing is not closely correlated to other memory prices. (Note that when DDR was only being produced by a few makers its price was sky high and this fact was noted on this thread. In fact I had predicted as much, for instance see #reply-14692025 .) In fact, even at this late date, there is still no spot market in RDRAM, but instead only for RIMMs assembled from RDRAM: dramexchange.com Part of the contributing factor to the above is that the few users of RDRAM that don't want them in RIMMs buy them straight from the memory makers. Another factor is the fact that while making DDR DIMMs out of DDR SDRAMs is fairly simple, RDRAM RIMMs are far more difficult, and this means that there are more companies buying DDR SDRAM chips for DIMM making than buying RDRAM chips for RIMM making. Re: "This is a serious question; if not demand related, was there a cutback in RDRAM production?" It's likely that Samsung is losing money on RDRAM RIMMs at the current spot market price. While they're also losing money on DDR, the difference between the two markets is that they have a near monopoly on RDRAM RIMMs, while no one has that on DDR SDRAM DIMMs. (When Samsung claims to have 50% of the DDR market you can safely ignore them. Their figures are way out of date, and are inconsistent with up to date figures from other memory makers.) Because of the near monopoly on RIMMs, Samsung can cut back slightly on production and cause the price to stay high. Samsung has indicated that they have not increased RDRAM production (as a percentage of total production) since June. (See #reply-16503683 . For comparison to DDR, see #reply-16577694 .) If Samsung wanted to drive the price of RDRAM through the floor it is within their capability, and would help get more acceptance of RDRAM, but it is not a rational move on their part. RDRAM is dead, and Samsung needs to make as much money on it as they can now, while it's still in some use. So Samsung is treating RDRAM as a niche memory and milking it for what they can get out of it. The other two makers of RDRAM are Toshiba and NEC. Both of them have announced reductions in DRAM production. (For Toshiba getting out of DRAM business see #reply-16520785 #reply-16483964 and #reply-16298726 . For Toshiba reducing RDRAM production see #reply-16209905 and #reply-16223069 . For NEC's strong support of DDR see #reply-16445329 #reply-16567779 #reply-16118283, for their cutting DRAM capacity see #reply-16195331 #reply-16152049 #reply-16150959 #reply-16051090 . I have no links showing what RDRAM capacity NEC cut, if any.) In other words, if RDRAM prices were high because of massively high demand for RDRAM chips, then why are NEC and Toshiba getting out of the business, and why is Samsung only putting 20% of their production in RDRAM? And where's all that production that's been predicted by Hynix, Infineon, Micron, or Nanya? The answer is that it was all BS, as was predicted a long time ago, the peak quarter for RDRAM production turned out to be 3~4Q01. (See #reply-16011397 #reply-16123048 actual predictions date to late 2000, but I didn't find any links to them in a quick search.) From the current production level's it's downhill all the way. Predicting short term stock prices is much, much, much more difficult than predicting medium term DRAM market share, but that said, I would think that you're likely to get more attractive entry points if you wait till near the end of the year. I'd be looking at a tax selling decline, and then a rebound in January. The other problem with buying RMBS right now is that Comdex is just around the corner, and it's probably going to be inundated with DDR stuff. And i845 DDR motherboards will likely hit the gray market before the end of the year. With the tax loss selling and depressing DDR press releases, I'd be looking at getting in soon after the beginning of the year, and hoping for good legal news on royalties. -- Carl