To: John Trader who wrote (55196 ) 11/8/2001 2:51:59 AM From: StanX Long Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 70976 Writing on the wall for stocks Investor sentiment, outflows point to trouble By Thom Calandra, CBS MarketWatch Last Update: 1:59 PM ET Nov. 7, 2001 SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- Those tracking the stock market's October-November rebound fully expect equity indexes to give up gains in coming months. "I'm the first one to admit I have no crystal ball, so I tend to look for areas of high risk," says David Solin at Foreign Exchange Analytics in Connecticut. "There is a huge expectation being built in that earnings are going to bounce back pretty sharply, but even on the tech side, these stocks are still way overvalued, trading at huge multiples." Those profit multiples range from 26 or so for your average Standard & Poor's 500 company to 60 and greater for the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ: news, chart, profile) crowd. "You have a huge jump in price-earnings multiples, well you expect to see a huge jump in profits, and with that a jump in sales. But many companies, like Cisco (CSCO: news, chart, profile), are actually seeing flat or falling sales. There is a lot of risk here." Solin, who sends out his technical views to clients each day, sees the Nasdaq Composite in the next seven months dropping below the September low of 1,387, perhaps to 1,315. The index trades now at 1,846 after a four-week rally that is beginning to entice American investors, many of them sitting on 50 percent and greater losses in this, the 19th month of the continuing bear market. Solin and others believe few individuals have benefited from the autumn rally. Just 39 stocks with market capitalizations above $250 million have gained 40 percent or more in the past three months, a new survey shows. See the survey.cbs.marketwatch.com