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To: John Trader who wrote (55196)11/8/2001 2:51:59 AM
From: StanX Long  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 70976
 
Writing on the wall for stocks Investor sentiment, outflows point to trouble


By Thom Calandra, CBS MarketWatch
Last Update: 1:59 PM ET Nov. 7, 2001

SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- Those tracking the stock market's October-November rebound fully expect equity indexes to give up gains in coming months.

"I'm the first one to admit I have no crystal ball, so I tend to look for areas of high risk," says David Solin at Foreign Exchange Analytics in Connecticut. "There is a huge expectation being built in that earnings are going to bounce back pretty sharply, but even on the tech side, these stocks are still way overvalued, trading at huge multiples."

Those profit multiples range from 26 or so for your average Standard & Poor's 500 company to 60 and greater for the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ: news, chart, profile) crowd. "You have a huge jump in price-earnings multiples, well you expect to see a huge jump in profits, and with that a jump in sales. But many companies, like Cisco (CSCO: news, chart, profile), are actually seeing flat or falling sales. There is a lot of risk here."

Solin, who sends out his technical views to clients each day, sees the Nasdaq Composite in the next seven months dropping below the September low of 1,387, perhaps to 1,315. The index trades now at 1,846 after a four-week rally that is beginning to entice American investors, many of them sitting on 50 percent and greater losses in this, the 19th month of the continuing bear market.

Solin and others believe few individuals have benefited from the autumn rally. Just 39 stocks with market capitalizations above $250 million have gained 40 percent or more in the past three months, a new survey shows. See the survey.

cbs.marketwatch.com



To: John Trader who wrote (55196)11/8/2001 10:14:52 AM
From: Gottfried  Respond to of 70976
 
John, you asked >the home is a big part of the American dream, but why subsidize this?<

To get re-elected?

G.



To: John Trader who wrote (55196)11/8/2001 11:11:51 AM
From: Jacob Snyder  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 70976
 
OT re: why subsidize home ownership:

For social stability.

For centuries, the French peasantry were a social force of chaos and revolution. Every new religion, every violent revolutionary, found a ready audience among the rural serfs. Every time the central government was weak, there were revolts in the provinces, which had to be put down with much destruction and death. Then, Napolean changed this, permanently. He gave them land, transforming the rural population from landless serfs to small landowning farmers. Not much land, but enough to give them a stake in The Status Quo. Since then, this population has been a force for stability and Order. Every French government that is threatened, can recruit an army from this population, and keep Chaos at bay.

I measure the success of a society, by things like % literacy, average lifespan. And % home ownership (which is currently at an all-time high in the USA).