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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Kayaker who wrote (5353)	11/13/2001 7:49:27 PM
From: t2	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99280

Kayaker, I have the same question. Just don't see how this environment is the same as what happened earlier this year. The low interest rates are putting a floor on this market. I can't understand how we can have a retest anytime soon...not unless the the economy really starts to overheat, pushing interest rates very high...a highly unlikely scenario in the coming months. Only a major external event can cause the drop, imho. ...but Zeev's turnips have a great record. (especially for those that are very active traders). Also from his posting, I get the idea that if the market breaks through his key resistance levels, it could be a new ball game. Maybe Zeev can correct me if I am wrong but the turnips seem to be flexible (change the indications) if certain conditions are met. Just have to remember that an economic cycle is really a cycle. Once you hit bottom, it has to recover with the odd exception like Japan. The recovery process is an incredible chain reaction...stable or rising markets leading to consumer confidence which leads to spending......etc.

To: Kayaker who wrote (5353)	11/13/2001 8:05:33 PM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 99280

What has changed from Sep 9th? Are earnings better, are interest rates much lower (only another half percent after a long string of what looked like ineffective reductions), has the economy sustained a hit that could get at least a good chunk of it (like travel and Ent.) into a tail spin, has employment gone up, is capex picking up (infineon just reduced capex by more than 60%, Quest is goind on s spending strike) and the list is longer. That is not the point, the market , IMTO, is a dynamic animal, it is discounting a coming recovery, when it does that it often puts in a very strong (technically strong) bottom and then retest it (with less technical persuation), we had the first leg (Sep 21, and it probably "would have" been the 16 as the turnips suggested a long time ago, if the market was not closed for four days), the second one is not far. The trigger for a retest will probably be preponderance of preannouncements of one kind or another, or another external event ( bankruptcy of a manjor airline, a bank in troubles because of excessive derivatives gone wrong, or whatever the excuse of the day might be). Zeev