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To: Tommaso who wrote (94406)	11/14/2001 1:00:52 PM
From: The Ox	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Tommaso, Don't read too much into his statements. Remember the last time he showed up to beat his chest was after the OSX had dropped 7 points from the short term high. It's no surprise that after today's retrace, he once again appears to discuss the whipsaw, that he, and only he has predicted and that everyone else has lost big money because no one else can time the market. Only great and power OZ can make money. The rest of the world are simply.....dogs. Yawn.....

To: Tommaso who wrote (94406)	11/14/2001 1:40:37 PM
From: chowder	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 95453

Tommaso, I found this over on the RIG board. Sort of interesting! ~~ poor slider! does anyone remember this call? >> FWIW; I'm: - 25% short the broad market - 10% long Oilpatch - 65% long gold/silver stocks (trading between 40-65%) - Cash from "0" to margined, up to 25% cash << messages.yahoo.com well, the proof is in the pudding! slider was short the broad market. the nasdaq is up 23% the last 30 days, the dow is up 6%. i think slider messed up. slider was long gold. the hui is down 7% over the last 30 days. siliconinvestor.com yes sir mr slider! you are the best! let me guess, you're taking another vacation. <LOL!!!> a little, public_reality ~~ I wasn't paying attention, I'm glad someone else was! dabum

To: Tommaso who wrote (94406)	11/14/2001 7:42:00 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

["why don't you say it in a way that a normal person can understand."] Tommy-boy; ...I did. But, for the sake of reitteration: This thread (and the one over under the porch - HTP) allways "reacts" to the moves in the OSX versus "acting" in anticipation of those moves. Even the "TA" afficianado's here completely and totally failed twice in the last 6 mos on major OSX moves. 1st: they failed to anticipate/call the "June Swoon" when the OSX basically rolled over & died post June 5th... crashing from the 120's to 58 in virtually a straight line. The "fundamentalists" also missed that move because they were mesmerized by the still (at that time) positive oil & gas prices and present earnings - along with a global economy that was showing initial signs of rolling over (as was the patch with an unprecented rapidity in the API builds) - but, not yet acknowledged as having done so... 2nd: the "TA" crowd failed to call an interim trading bottom at the blow off capitulation, when we dipped to OSX 58 - ie: "THE TURN" ...the reason they did so; was because they again were waiting to react to the market telling them an interim bottom was near, or at hand...ie: once again getting/remaining too bearish at the bottom - just as they were too bullish (for too long) at the top. The "Chihuahua" crowd - finally turned bearish as the negative fundamentals began catching up to falling OSX shareprices; in late Summer thru September...but; then got (and stayed) too Bearish right at the bottom - failing to factor in a "War/Oil Supply Disruption" premium (which was a when & not an if - proposition) given the state of events with Israel/Palestine, Iraq and then the Sept 11th tragedy. ...then; after the upside run of late; the "Chihuahua" crowd jumped on the bandwagon long again - as the "TA" indicators turned positive - only to get whipsawed by the reality of a still declining global economic environment. That sub OSX 60 final capitulation came as shorts piled on in a end of fiscal year tax loss selling frenzy from the funds - which caused those "longterm/value" investors (longterm is an oxyMORON in cyclicals by the way (VBG) to finally throw in the towel. Much of the rally/bounce off of the turn was short covering... this should have been anticipated - just as the "when, not if" arrival of a "War/Oil supply disruption" premium assinged to OSX stocks; stopping the summer meltdown. My point is this thread which was given back to the chihuahua's goes dead untill the OSX makes a major move... then the "reactionaries" arrive enmasse....whodathunkit (vbg) ? ACT IN ANTICIPATION OF AND NOT IN REACTION TO - the fundamental catalysts & drivers to this sector ie: initial early warning signs in the global economy - that were totally ignored & poo-poo'd back in June. Trade out front of the market - anticipate - don't react. There was nothing more than a trading rally created by the "when, not if" assignment of a "War/Oil Supply Disruption" premium here... which we got in Sept; that in turn created a little short covering rally - that was a "TRADE" - nothing more, nothing less... and now we're back into the reality abyss of a volatile cyclical sector caught in still negative global economic shackles - but; with the "Chihuahua's" who capitulated in reaction to the Summer Meltdown; then reacting to - once again; and jumping on the bandwagon atop this rally that's stalled into still deaccelerating economic fundamentals...and they're getting (and about to get even more) whipsawed. ....what did Apache do with their drilling budget here of late - just as everyone got bullish on the drillers again ? Thursday October 25, 3:10 pm Eastern Time Apache expects lower capital spending in 2002 HOUSTON, Oct 25 (Reuters) - Independent U.S. oil and gas producer Apache Corp. (NYSE:APA - news) on Thursday said it plans to cut its capital spending on exploration and development to $500 million or $600 million in 2002 from around $1 billion in 2001. ...did you do the "TURN" as a trade; seeing still deaccelerating global ecvonomic fundamentals all across the horizon; or did you "re-buy" into a new Bull market emerging ? ...what part of the cycle are we in here ? ...what subsectors are "THE" play here and "WHY" ? ...are you believers yet; that there are in fact - "NO NEW PARADIGMS" - LET ALONE NO NEW MULTI-YEAR EXPANSION CYCLES...but, rather in reality; the only new paradigm; is that the cycles (and subcycles) within cyclicals will be shorter and more volatile than before - given the new electronic disemination of news globally and the emergence of the online individual trader etc ? ...how will the "new smaller" global marketplace affect traditional commodity cycles ? ...how will the arrival and the emmergence of the Enron-esque derivatives trading effect future commodity price cycles ? ...can derivatives be used to depress commodities at will; given the needed economic effect that a Greenspan desires ? (are they now ? - ask Raymond Plank his opine on this subject) ? ...and you slugs dare call SI SDII the "intellectual ghetto" ? ....YOU Chihuahua's epitomize "in the box" thinkers... the reactionaries... those who get & stay too bullish for too long at the tops and who also get too bearish for too long at the bottoms - and who have alone become perhaps the single most accurate contrarian indicator in the market....followers & box dwellers... mere cretins. ...nothing more, nothing less ~ ciao Got NEM ?