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Technology Stocks : Intel Corporation (INTC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: maui_dude who wrote (149385)	11/25/2001 9:32:43 PM
From: Elmer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 186894

MDR estimated that the die size would shrink to 116mm squared AMD made this same claim recently about Northwood die size. I hope someone bookmarks this and reminds the Hemdroids who claim AMD spies know so much about what's going on inside Intel. They don't. EP

To: maui_dude who wrote (149385)	11/25/2001 9:45:19 PM
From: wanna_bmw	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 186894

Maui, Re: "Does anyone know if 116mm squared includes the size of the cache ? If so, that would be a very impressive P4 shrink." This is probably without the cache. I remember at one point, people were guessing Northwood size to be 140mm^2. This still seems the most likely projection to me. Keep in mind, though, that Intel tends to have very high yields, overall (both line yields and die yields), so even if AMD has the advantage of smaller sizes, it doesn't do them very good if they are yielding low. Re: "When is AMDs .13 Athlon scheduled for production release ? Intel may have a very good opportunity to gain back a lot of market share with northwood on desktop until Athlon .13 part comes out." AMD says Q1 for production volumes of Thoroughbred (the .13u Athlon), but this may only be the mobile variety. AMD expects all segments to start production in the first half, but some segments may not be complete until the second quarter. amd.com I think Northwood will have a good opportunity to gain market share over Palomino. AMD is going to eventually lose money on this processor, just like they did with Thunderbird, as they attempt to drive prices down to compete for market share. The good news is that by the time Thoroughbred is launched for the desktop, Intel will probably have their 533MHz front side bus ready, which should maintain a performance advantage, even if AMD is able to drive costs lower. Re: "When .13 Athlon at 80 mm does come out, it could give AMD about 30% advantage in terms of die size compared to 116 mm sq. northwood. Almost what Intel hopes to gain from transitioning to 300mm wafers. This really seems like a game of leapfrogging at this point with pressure on AMD to deliver after northwood is released." Thoroughbred dies at 80mm^2 definitely suggests a smaller 256KB of L2 cache, which will put it at a disadvantage over Northwood. AMD will probably get much lower costs per good wafer, but the question is how many more good wafers can Intel produce (in other words, will Intel's line yield be better?). The only thing AMD will be under pressure to do is release Hammer. The K7 will eventually lose out in performance. You won't see much better than you see now, since AMD is already narrowing their transistor gate lengths as small as they can get with current lithography. In order to get any more performance, AMD needs SOI, but even then, Intel will be far ahead with Northwood. That's why AMD needs Hammer. If Hammer ends up underperforming when it's released, that will be very bad for AMD. Hammer is sort of like their last hope. As Dan3 will even tell you, new processor generations don't come around every day. wbmw

To: maui_dude who wrote (149385)	11/25/2001 10:19:10 PM
From: Windsock	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 186894

Re:Ruiz said during the investor conference. "We now estimate we have a 10 to 20 percent advantage on cost. We expect a 40 percent cost reduction by 2003." Is this the same Ruiz who said in May that AMD was doing fine and on target to meet estimates [27 cents per share] right before AMD closed Q2, warned and delivered 5 cents per share. Of course the Ruiz forecast was also followed by losses, more losses and losses for 2002.

To: maui_dude who wrote (149385)	11/25/2001 10:24:20 PM
From: Paul Engel	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 186894

MD - Re: "Manufacturing at 0.18-micron process technology enables AMD to produce Athlon XP processors with a die size of 129mm squared, Ruiz said. Intel's P4 processor is 217mm squared. "Our manufacturing efficiency is second to none in the industry," So...how did Six-Figure-Hector explain away AMD's $187,000,000 LOSS and Intel's $655,000,000 profit in the last quarter. Seems like Hectoritis is waving the smoke and mirrors - and neglecting reality = AMD LOSSES ! Paul