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To: MonsieurGonzo who wrote (10605)	12/10/2001 4:37:10 AM
From: Berney	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 11051

MG, I suppose I continue to be an optimist at heart. Your points are well-taken; however, I'm not yet in the camp that allows me to consider that ramping up of monetary and fiscal policy can attract a deflationary state. Obviously, the swamp's hospitality industry is screaming. However, my youngest talked me into going to Universal Studios about a month ago, and the lines were horrible. Those hour waits reminded me why I avoid such places. I believe that the two hidden problems are: 1) Ford's announcement of this huge loss due to collection problems, and 2) the time-bomb of pension costs. As to number two, this article is interesting: marketwatch.com I recently looked at 33 of the the 2000 annual reports of the Big Boyz that had defined benefit plans. On average they were using an expected rate of return of ~9.5%. The lowest was MER at 7.7%; the highest was LLY at 10.5%. As they bring this number down, the costs are going to be huge! TB

To: MonsieurGonzo who wrote (10605)	12/10/2001 7:55:04 AM
From: phillong69	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 11051

Ugh, the thing that is flooring me right now is the (apparent) lack of attention to the GLOBAL nature of this downturn. That hasn't happened since, oh, what was it, 1929?.... Been trying to wrap my brain around the notion of a deflationary spiral (also 1930's) since bobcors terrific Nov post. Seems like the odds are stacked better to be short equity and long I-dont-know-what-except cash. OTOH, since we're providing antecdoes, things are not terrible out in DC land. A couple of my telecom friends are out of work, and a few others dodged some fairly severe layoffs. With the Gov spending base, it seems things here are better than elsewhere, though still no where near as good as they were not too long ago. > ...if Dubya keeps slapping duties on imported steel, lumber, textiles, etc. we will be repeating the same "Smoot-Hawley" tariff mistakes we made in the 1930's and this Recession could very well turn into a Depression or, some kind of insidious "deflation" ~ where the last thing anybody wants to do is borrow money - whether for capital equipment, home or auto loan :- -Steve