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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (16975)	12/29/2001 6:44:08 PM
From: Stockdoctor	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99280

Zeev.....question for you...have been reading that DOW could see 5000-6000 next year...do you buy that theory.

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (16975)	12/29/2001 7:50:39 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 99280

Thank's Zeev that was very generous. In the Jan run, would you presume some of the smaller issues will be the best plays and if so suggestions would be appreciated. Not sure if you answered this before, but has the oil sector bottommed? M

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (16975)	12/29/2001 9:00:59 PM
From: HairBall	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99280

Zeev Hed: As of late, the time I've been able to allocate to message boards has been sparse. However, this holiday weekend in a rare window of opportunity, I found some time away from visiting relatives and friends. I chose to use it to look over some charts and log onto IHub. However, IHub is down so I decided to surf over to SI and check out the few threads I scan over from time to time. Your thread is one on that very short list...<g> I don’t have the time to read all the post so I scan via the post list and select those post that grab my attention. Fortunately I keyed in on this one. Zeev you are to be commended for not only sharing your thoughts and analysis (very well structured and thought out), but for having the courage to project so far in advance. There are those that think that the probability numbers say it can’t be done. I always answer with this...those analysts that can’t do something are usually the ones that think no one else can to it either...<g> Keep up the good work Zeev. The market is dynamic and ever changing, so no one should ever marry their expectation. Having a plan B is just as important as plan A. However, there is one constant that I always try to apply when doing my analysis...THINK LIKE A CRIMINAL...<g> Regards, LG PS: I trust all are having a safe and happy holiday season!

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (16975)	12/29/2001 9:04:00 PM
From: lh56	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99280

zeev, thanks for all the time and effort put into analysis and commentary. i appreciate your realtime reactions and insights posted to the thread this year. i wish you the best for the coming year. and to all here who try their level best to interpret the signal thru the noise... thanks. happy new year y'all, larry ;o) ps. looking forward to commentary from 'nextGen' Hal.(g)

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (16975)	12/30/2001 8:17:43 AM
From: Jim Cash	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 99280

I want to present something that no one is talking about. Usually a long term retest takes about 6 months to develop. I think it is possible that during September we were in the process of this retest until the events of September 11th induced a panic selling . The retest of the low of the Bear Market may have been in Sept and it is being ignored since a cataclysmic event caused the market to take out the prior low. Take a look at this link nasdaq.com`&selected=QQQ&FormType=Institutional The big boys knew the game and look at what they did. I really hope I am wrong as I had 100K earmarked for QQQ Leaps during the Sept lows but I kept waiting for at least a short term retest that didn't come.

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (16975)	12/30/2001 1:48:31 PM
From: ajtj99	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 99280

Zeev, thank you for taking the time to post your thoughts on the market next year. Amazingly, your scenario seems to be giving nearly everyone what they want: -A re-test of the Sept. Lows -A drop to the bottom of the wedge at 1646 -Justa's lower mid-year election number on the Dow (and SPX I assume), but not the COMP (a nice compromise). -A drop to get the market fairly valued according to the Fed model (for George, Larry, and Hal) -A possible run to 2388 (for Gem-X) -Re-test and higher low in the end of Sept/early Oct (for funds closing out their years) -2150 end of year 2002, up about 7-1/2% from 2001's close -An end of year rally for the elections -Several tradable rallies for Zeev, one nearly 50% in the fall to make his year.

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (16975)	12/30/2001 2:08:09 PM
From: studdog	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99280

Zeev, Thanks for your analysis for the upcoming year. I discussed your scenario with a wall street friend of mine who is well placed in a large firm. He took some exception to your thesis of a retest to allow "Them" to accumulate inventory (think like a criminal). He is one of "them", and he states the large firms no longer build inventory in any meaningful way and the desks are usually flat at the end of the day. This has been a gradual shift over the last few years. He doesn't feel that there will be a manipulated retest to accommodate the buildup of inventory for this reason. What do you think? Karl

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (16975)	12/31/2001 11:25:52 PM
From: Mark Johnson	Respond to of 99280

< The turnips apologize for a bad call of an interim retracement from mid November to late December> Humility is a good thing Zeev....but YOU can't blame the turnips when it was really the soothsayers fault..... Hey, seriously......I bookmarked your post and will critique your call at least once a month during 2002...(my New Years Resolution)...... Happy New Year....To the club for celebration....... MJ

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (16975)	1/2/2002 1:57:51 AM
From: Mike M	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99280

Thanks for the invite Zeev. I think I will...post my own scenario, that is... I think it possible you got bullish just about the time your untimely "December" consolidation was ready to unfold. Monday's selloff was a bit sharp and probably a harbinger of things to come. We are in a wrestling match between 1920 and 2000. In the short run I suspect that we have a better chance of breaking below 1900 than in surpassing 2000. We had a cycle top around the 26th and it now appears that the next low is the 9th of Jan. That is enough time to wreak a little havoc on the bulls before they get it going again. I give it a better than even chance that we do a little bouncing in the 1850 area and, if so, that ultimately gives way to 1780 area...For the Elliot guys that would constitute a completed fourth wave since September, in my book. I would then set the stage for an explosive move up which may well blow through 2200 and approach 2400. From there I would expect a five wave correction which should again fall no further than the 1700 area. If, instead, we push above 2000 inside the week (I don't expect it, but cannot yet rule out), then perhaps we find ourselves still in the third wave since September, and before the middle of February we reach for 2160. The charts have yet to completely show their hands but I have to admit that Monday looked ominous. Everybody gets a guess. That's mine.