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Biotech / Medical : VD's Model Portfolio & Discussion Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Vector1 who wrote (9109)	1/15/2002 9:31:38 PM
From: Spekulatius	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9719

<<I am thinking about two stocks, KDUS and IGEN. Would be interested in any and all opinions. >> I'd add MLNM and MEDX. These are "must haves" for biotech investors. MLNM is cheap considering the leverage of their 500M$ in R&D (2002) compared to the market cap of 6B$ (with CORR). This compares very favorable with for example BMY, which is putting 2.3B$ in R&D and commands a market cap of 95B$. MEDX racks up deal after deal and builds a diverse pipeline with low cash burn. VD never owned the antibody companies ABGX or MEDX. Why? KDUS is a typical net-net play where the intrinsic value of its assets appear to be higher than the market cap. However, until the cash can find a good use, the upside for KDUS stock is limited, IMO. IGEN is certainly an interesting stock given the latest ruling versus Roche, but I never liked litigation driven stocks, so I am biased.

To: Vector1 who wrote (9109)	1/15/2002 9:33:06 PM
From: jayhawk969	Respond to of 9719

Suze and RC Mac have continued a very intelligent discussion regarding IGEN. The best and latest is; Message 16913551 KDUS is on a roll, since Cyto took it off its gained 4%. I am a seller at $2.50 unless they announce a business plan.

To: Vector1 who wrote (9109)	1/16/2002 12:52:25 AM
From: scaram(o)uche	Respond to of 9719

Given a recent license fee, I estimate cash in hand at $1.91/share and book at $2.00/share. No employees, no burn. They've been cash flow positive for a few quarters, and license renewal fees plus interest income should, IMO, offset expenses going forward (and given status quo). OSIP says that two licensed projects are IND track, and has repeatedly said that one's (Solvay sublicense, congestive heart failure) entry to phase I is "imminent". The second, an OSIP project for asthma (OSI-760), recently hit a snag...... non-mechanism-related "liability". On the upside, OSIP says that there are backup molecules in preclinical and that they've discovered that the adenosine receptor antagonists have both bronchoconstriction and allergy mechanisms........ Message 16703562 I guesstimate the royalty at 4%. I say royalty rather than royalties because KDUS would only be compensated for the first drug to reach market, not both. Flip a coin, CHF or asthma. Milestones would compile from both programs, but aren't large at best (from memory, about $4.5 million max.). Work on both projects has been diligent, or Goddard is one heck of a good fake (and con artist!). They also own a big chunk (ballpark, 25%) of Axiom Biotechnologies, San Diego, collaborators with Biacore, Arena and others. After an initial Biacore deal, the KDUS chunk was valued at $4-5 million (please correct me if wrong, Bubba). Biacore recently gave back some of the equity for exclusive marketing rights to a cell profiling instrument, and I'd guess that KDUS's share, using the now OLD valuation point, is about $6 million. The focus at Axiom is GPCR-related drug discovery and they're currently hiring. The recent license fee rolled in from a "major pharma". If they can kick the yeasties (the major remaining asset, apart from Axiom and the cash, is a yeast genomics platform) back to working order, KDUS gets a nice $1M milestone. Major shareholders are Carl Icahn, SmithKline, Bristol-Myers, and Solvay (their venture arm, I forget the formal name). My most recent KDUS fantasy? The OSIP presentation at H&Q was oncology, oncology, oncology, and oncology. When Goddard got to their non-oncology slide, it showed several molecules based on the KDUS platform, several molecules that were reactive with various adenosine receptors. But he just glossed over the slide, once their lifeline, like it was nothing. I fantasize that, given a lack of fit with the oncology focus at OSIP, KDUS gets rights returned to the molecules. >> It is generally not my kind of play << Yeah, we discussed that. Beer, ya know. It doesn't really fit well in VDXX. Rick