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Pastimes : Predictions - Does Anybody Get It Right? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TRINDY who wrote (47)	1/27/2002 4:36:43 PM
From: Dale Baker	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 117

Trindy, perhaps Zeev responds here because we have had a fairly long period of respectful exchanges on a lot of topics. This isn't an attack, it is simply analysis and scrutiny to see if anyone has a neat, clean predictive model for market changes. I find the turnips pretty squishy. That doesn't mean they don't represent a clever attempt to locate market swings. I think it's important to note that few of Zeev's actual trades seem to track very closely with the evolving turnip picture. This thread will shine a light on all sorts of predictions and systems that I come across. No one should take it personally - if someone posts a prediction in public, it is open to scrutiny. I hope that clarifies the philosophy.

To: TRINDY who wrote (47)	1/27/2002 4:56:53 PM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 117

Trindy, Dale's argument is valid, and thus I decided to check what indeed the record is. My memory is good enough to remember vividly the failures of the model (they hurt more than the successes <g>), but by checking few keywords at critical periods, it was quite easy to reconstruct the "record". Dale should have added to his criticism, however, "I wished I listened to you and got out no later than 2:15 PM January 31st 2001" (VBG). As for AMAT, if indeed we are getting down under 1700 (I have 1628 or so) in late June, then AMAT is indeed a good short. A stop at $46 is a little rough, so I would wait for another surge to a triple top at the $45/6 area. I think that NVLS and KLAC are probably better candidates, and if you believe the thesis of weakness ahead (after a run above 2000 next week?), CYMI is probably a better candidate allowing for another print of a new high, just above $37.5 (maybe $38?) with a stop just above $40. Zeev