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To: Perspective who wrote (33819)	3/8/2002 10:01:01 PM
From: John Madarasz	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

nice post, thxs for sharing...only one point of contention however, and that's your observation on the "weather induced construction boom" while rising interest rates should take some air out of the new construction market...the U.S is entering into the seasonally favorable period for construction now...that being Spring / Summer / Fall i should know, been in the biz almost 24 winters... i've got 13 Toll Bros houses ("priced in the mid 3 -4's") going in in the old corn field behind me this spring<ng>... and that's just the tip of the iceberg. Thxs again, and have a great weekend, jm

To: Perspective who wrote (33819)	3/9/2002 12:09:44 AM
From: Rarebird	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

Excellent Post. Economic and Financial Reality is certainly on your side. So is Truth as unconcealedness. But who is interested in that nowadays? Concealedness holds sway at the moment. Look at The Fed funds futures contracts. They are now discounting an 80% probability of 50 basis points in Fed tightening by mid-year, with 25 basis point hikes seen as probable at the May 7 and Jun 27 meetings. Interest rates were spiking again today, with the 10-year Treasury note up to 5.31% and the 2-year note rising to a post-9/11 high of 3.53%. Rising rates will restrain growth in rate-sensitive sectors such as housing. I find that Clownish. Fed Rate hikes with the government rushing headlong into deficit spending? I'd like to see that. The Fed won't raise rates until they HAVE to, and when they HAVE to, it won't have much to do with "cooling down" economic growth. The fact that ALL of the firming economic statistics are due to a MASSIVE increase in government deficit spending is deemed irrelevant. The fact that consumers are borrowing twice as fast as their incomes are growing is deemed equally irrelevant. The fact that President Bush has just done EXACTLY the same thing as the Hoover Administration did in 1931 is totally ignored. Everything is being ignored, except that government accounting practices have given birth to a slew of encouraging economic statistics. Strange how no one EVER questions government accounting practices, especially when just weeks ago, corporate accounting practices were threatening to sink U.S. markets terminally. Here is my read: What we have here is a grace period for U.S. and world economies and markets. The grace is truly amazing in that it flies in the face of any semblance of economic or financial reality. But that's a Big Bear Market Rally for you, one that will likely retrace 1/3 to 1/2 of the losses in the NAZ from March 2000 to September 2001 before it receives another 75% haircut again. Potential Catalysts down the road to end this upward correction? 1) There is the international reaction to Mr Bush's steel tariffs. 2)There is the lead up to the end of the Japanese financial year at the end of this month. 3)There is the countdown towards the U.S. government lifting its debt ceiling. A very bad tragic ending is insured here IMO.

To: Perspective who wrote (33819)	3/9/2002 8:25:20 AM
From: re3	Respond to of 209892

Terrific post. Personally, I got too 'exuberant' about buying poots when the dow came back to 10k. But i'm waiting and figuring i'll add to the collection if/when the dow hits 11k or we head to very late march near that number. I don't want to tangle with the potential quarter end mutual fund push.

To: Perspective who wrote (33819)	3/9/2002 8:35:48 AM
From: skinowski	Respond to of 209892

Bob, thank you for your interesting post. The most important thing I have learned in the 5 years of rather intense interest in the markets (which followed many more years of casual interest) is to keep my trading - and my interpretation of the world around me – as separate as I can. If one doesn’t do that, one becomes a fundamentalist in some way or another, and that is a different ball of wax. As you very well know - unlike people’s (including ourselves) opinions about reality - price action is objective… It is an algebraic sum of the opinions - and mostly emotions – of many. Of all TA disciplines EW is the best one suited to prepare a trader how to deal with the wackiness of the crowds – in many dimensions and time frames.

To: Perspective who wrote (33819)	3/9/2002 10:27:38 AM
From: AllansAlias	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

Thanks BC. Here's something sad and funny... According to Bloomberg, the S&P 500 Index (SPX – 1164.31) is currently trading with a price-to-earnings ratio of 62. ... Even after taking these 47 names [companies posting losses] out of the calculation, the price-to-earnings ratio for the SPX would still be a very high 34, according to data from Bloomberg. schaeffersresearch.com

To: Perspective who wrote (33819)	3/9/2002 11:21:32 AM
From: patron_anejo_por_favor	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 209892

Nice sentiments, BC...I agree completely, although I would be surprised to see Dow 11K on the next up leg...signs of exhaustion are already setting in (like the failure of the rally to hold in the Dow yesterday). The Naz will run up more. I think you've got the long-term view right. It's possible that Bush's sabre-rattling on trade protection may be the final straw that gets Europeans and Asians starting to move out of dollar denominated assets. Time will tell.

To: Perspective who wrote (33819)	3/9/2002 2:59:17 PM
From: sun-tzu	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 209892

This market cares nothing about who is right and who is wrong. What good is it to be "right" and broke? I know a number of outstanding stock pickers who can't trade there way out of a paper bag. I also know a few who have little knowledge of the capital markets, but possess an uncanny ability to perceive an edge and execute. As for being dogmatic, where does that get you?...frustrated, angry and upset, limiting your ability to make consistent money. It also prevents you from enjoying the things that truly count; family, friends and life. This is a zero sum game. If you are not making money then someone is taking it from you. So wise up and get yourself off the receiving end. Sorry for the tough love but this is war. sun-tzu