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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Steve Lee who wrote (39514)3/10/2002 2:20:09 PM
From: TREND1  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 99280
 
It seems to me some people thing they know
more then Greenspan(g)
Larry Dudash



To: Steve Lee who wrote (39514)3/10/2002 4:54:25 PM
From: Jdaasoc  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 99280
 
"Now that the recession's over"

The recession is over for the US economy from the perspective of job losses and GDP.

Please fill us in about our American ignorance from your (a)broader perspective. <g>



To: Steve Lee who wrote (39514)3/10/2002 5:14:25 PM
From: Crimson Ghost  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 99280
 
The recession such that it was probably is over. But the upside is quite limited IMHO since super-easy credit kept autos and housings booming right through the downturn contrary to previous experience. With interest rates surging, autos and housing are headed lower, not higher.

If we had a had a real recession and bear market that had begun to redress the bubble distortions-- excess leverage, overvalued stocks, a persistent "mania" psychology, and a huge trade deficit -- the stage would indeed be set for a new bull market. But under current conditions a new sustained bull is out of the question IMHO. Will enjoy the rally while it lasts, but I still expect the lows to be tested next fall.