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To: marginmike who wrote (115501)3/13/2002 1:02:00 PM
From: techlvr  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 152472
 
< I think VIX could spike to 18-19 and Tyx 5.75 by spring-summer.>

What makes you think rates could rise that much? I perceive the underlying inflation rate at about 1%, no strong fundamentals for a huge 'V' shaped recovery, and hence no big need for proactive Fed intervention to ward off inflationary pressures. I could see rates to maybe 2.75 to 3%.



To: marginmike who wrote (115501)3/13/2002 1:03:37 PM
From: Dexter Lives On  Respond to of 152472
 
Yup some super-complacency (I see VIX in 15-18 range for a while this spring) to set up the new bull -g then WHAM!, the recognition wave... -ng



To: marginmike who wrote (115501)3/13/2002 7:59:19 PM
From: limtex  Read Replies (4) | Respond to of 152472
 
mm In answering the question as to whether the VIX can predict future returns, our conclusion is that the evidence is very poor," the Merrill report states.

The conclusion appears to be that the VIX has about the same record of predicting the future direction of the market as a piece of green cheese.

Best,

L


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