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To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (49906)4/11/2002 1:51:52 PM
From: stockman_scott  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 65232
 
Siebel may be signaling that the contraction in the tech sector is not quite over...

______________________________

Siebel Stock Falls Further, Analysts Cut Forecasts
Thursday April 11, 1:16 pm Eastern Time

NEW YORK, Calif. (Reuters) - Shares of software maker Siebel Systems Inc. (NasdaqNM:SEBL - news) fell a further 6 percent on Thursday, as analysts cut their forecasts after negative comments on the industry by CEO Tom Siebel the previous day.

Shares of Siebel, the world's No. 1 maker of customer service and sales software, traded $1.54 lower at $23.90 on the Nasdaq, after falling about 10 percent on Wednesday.

Speaking in Madrid, Spain, on Wednesday, Siebel said the contraction in the software industry was not over.

First Albany analyst Mark Murphy cut his estimate for 2002 revenue to $2 billion from $2.2 billion and earnings to 52 cents a share from 59 cents. For 2003, he sees $2.3 billion in revenue and earnings of 66 cents a share, down from $2.5 billion and 75 cents a share.

Patrick Walravens, an analyst at Jolson Merchant Partners, cut his rating on Siebel shares to a ``hold'' and also cut his outlook. He now expects Siebel to book $2.12 billion in revenue and earn 56 cents a share in 2002.

For 2003, Walravens expects the company to book $2.3 billion and earn 70 cents a share, down from revenue of $2.57 and earnings of 81 cents a share.

Credit Suisse First Boston cut its outlook for 2002, saying it expects Siebel's software sales to grow by 4 percent instead of the 12 percent analyst Brent Thill had previously expected and the 15 percent Siebel expected in January.

In a statement, the company said its chief executive was remarking on the industry as a whole and not the company in particular in a talk in Spain the previous day.

A report on the meeting by Bloomberg News had misrepresented the remarks and taken them out of context, the statement said. A Bloomberg spokeswoman said the news service stood by its story. She gave no further comment.

``Mr. Siebel made a number of remarks in response to questions about the state of the economic recovery and the software industry in general,'' the statement said. ``However, during this talk, Mr. Siebel explicitly declined to comment about the results of Siebel Systems, first-quarter operating results, and the outlook for the balance of the year.''

A Siebel representative declined to comment further.

Reporting on the meeting, Bloomberg quoted Siebel as saying, ``We haven't picked up yet,'' and ``The contraction is not over.'' In a later report, Bloomberg said Siebel was referring to the industry as a whole.

Murphy said the report was one factor in his decision. ``I would say the larger factors are the litany of software companies that have been confirming IT (information technology) demand is weak.''



To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (49906)4/11/2002 1:56:42 PM
From: stockman_scott  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 65232
 
Tech stocks continue to break down...

Message 17316619



To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (49906)4/11/2002 2:31:06 PM
From: stockman_scott  Respond to of 65232
 
14:02 ET Strong Stocks
The following stocks are exhibiting relative strength today: Teradyne (TER 36.00 +1.36), Internet Security (ISSX 20.42 +0.78), Broadcom (BRCM 33.81 +0.50), Zoran (ZRAN 37.49 +0.74), Millennium Phara (MLNM 20.92 +0.69), Taro Pharma (TARO 27.00 +0.69), Brocade (BRCD 23.18 +0.68), VeriSign (VRSN 24.09 +0.35).



To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (49906)4/11/2002 3:03:30 PM
From: stockman_scott  Respond to of 65232
 
S&P says corporate defaults smash records

By Jonathan Stempel
Thursday April 11, 2:47 pm Eastern Time

NEW YORK, April 11 (Reuters) - Corporate bond defaults worldwide smashed records in the first quarter of 2002 and the pace of defaults will likely fall only moderately this year, Standard & Poor's said on Thursday.

From January through March, 94 companies defaulted on $33.6 billion of rated bonds worldwide, S&P said. Forty-one came from the United States, where corporate credit quality sank for the 15th straight quarter, and 38 came from Argentina, where companies can no longer make foreign currency interest payments.

Concern over the scope of any U.S. economic recovery, the prospect that Middle East unrest may lead to rising energy prices, and weakness in the telecommunications sector -- especially in Europe -- will keep defaults high this year, the rating agency said.

``Investors need to realize there remain significant risks in the high-yield market,'' said Brooks Brady, associate director for corporate default research at S&P Risk Solutions, in an interview. ``We aren't out of the woods yet.''

Most companies that default on bonds carry ``junk,'' or high-yield, credit ratings.

The old record for total defaults was set in the fourth quarter of 2001, when 55 companies defaulted, S&P said. The record quarterly dollar amount for defaults is $36.9 billion, set in the first and fourth quarters of 2001, S&P said.

S&P said four companies -- telecom Global Crossing Ltd. (Other OTC:GBLXQ.PK - news), retailer Kmart Corp. (NYSE:KM - news), telecom McLeodUSA Inc. (NasdaqNM:MCLDQ - news) and UnitedGlobalCom Inc., the parent of ailing cable TV operator United Pan-Europe Communications NV -- accounted for $16.6 billion, or nearly half, of bond defaults worldwide.

Global Crossing was responsible for $5.4 billion of defaulted bonds, McLeodUSA for $4.6 billion, Kmart for $3.4 billion and UnitedGlobalCom for about $3.2 billion, S&P said.

ARGENTINA DRIVES RATE HIGHER

Worldwide, a record 4.16 percent of all ``junk'' bond issuers defaulted in the quarter. The old record was 3.4 percent, set in the first quarter of 1991, S&P said.

Excluding Argentina, the default rate for the quarter was 2.25 percent, which translates into an annual default rate slightly higher than last year's 8.9 percent, Brady said.

``Defaults can tend to lag changes in the economic cycle, so even as other parts of the economy rebound, some companies may remain at significant risk of default,'' he said. The United States last officially exited a recession in March 1991.

The quarter's other defaults included three in the United Kingdom, two each in Bermuda, Brazil, Canada, and Indonesia, and one each in Australia, China, the Netherlands and Switzerland, S&P said.

S&P's quarterly default data exclude preferred stock, and bonds on which companies have missed interest payments but have not been officially declared in default.



To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (49906)4/11/2002 3:16:21 PM
From: Clappy  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 65232
 
Ol' Oily Silverback Gorilla,

Back when you were hunting the oil stocks did you come across any that were involved in the production or supply of Biodiesel.

Try to remember this term "Biodiesel".
I think it could be really big.
I thought of it as just another gas-ahol type of thing but now heard the big wigs at a fuel oil depot that I do work for talking about possibly setting up their facility to sell it. So it seem like it could be entering main stream if big oil's lobbyists don't get things squashed.

Basically they are making a diesel substitute out of soybeans. Supposed to cleaner and we obviously have an abundance of the material and farmers looking to grow the stuff. Right now it costs more to manufacture than the petrol type, though.

If the Senate pushes through any incentives like tax breaks though, it may be able to compete.

They are using it over in Europe.
Primarily in France.

I'm looking for companies to do DD on in their field but I'm having trouble finding many.

Anyone have any ideas?

-Clappy



To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (49906)4/11/2002 4:59:50 PM
From: stockman_scott  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 65232
 
Fed's McTeer sees growth up, inflation down ( sure you do Bob)...

WASHINGTON, April 11 (Reuters) - Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Robert McTeer said on Thursday there was ``considerable slack'' in the U.S. economy and that inflation seemed poised to decline even as growth picks up.

``While the recovery has already begun, its strength and durability remain uncertainty,'' McTeer said in the Dallas Fed's annual report. ``Inflation declined during the recession and seems poised to decline further as growth accelerates in an economy with considerable slack.''

McTeer said he did not know whether the U.S. economy would resume the high rates of growth it enjoyed in the late 1990s, but expressed optimism on the outlook for gains in productivity, or output per worker hour.

``If the new economic paradigm was lost -- which I doubt -- I expect it to be regained,'' he said. ``Productivity growth in the near term reduces unit labor costs and should help restore the profitability needed for a sustained recovery without stoking inflation.''