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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (50801)	5/1/2002 2:37:30 PM
From: stockman_scott	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 65232

"A Different Kind of Recession" story.news.yahoo.com <<: What are the chances for an end to this downward drift? A: Three things are weighing on the market right now: the situation in the Mideast, Enronitis, and concerns about sustainability of recovery in the second half of this year. The first-quarter reports -- and comments with them from management -- have been reasonably good. We believe earnings estimates for the second quarter are very realistic, but the very ambitious third- and fourth-quarter estimates may not be attainable. The problem is that this is a different kind of recession. The bounceback in tech and telecom is where much of this growth so far was supposed to come from -- and we haven't seen that yet...>>

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (50801)	5/2/2002 10:35:21 AM
From: stockman_scott	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 65232

U.S. Oil Prices Skid as Foreign Supplies Swell By Grant McCool NEW YORK, May 1 (Reuters) - U.S. oil prices skidded Wednesday for the second day after an unexpected rise in weekly crude inventories eased fears that an Iraq embargo and producer export cuts had seriously dented supplies. Crude for June delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange was 37 cents lower at $26.92 a barrel after a U.S. government report confirmed Tuesday's industry data that stockpiles of crude jumped last week as foreign imports ballooned. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) weekly inventory report released before Wednesday's market opening showed crude stocks rising 4.6 million barrels to 325.5 million barrels. A steep rise in imports mystified some energy analysts, who had been expecting a decline in crude stockpiles because of last month's disruption to Venezuelan oil operations during a national strike. "I don't know where the oil is coming from but wherever it is, they are trying to get it here as quickly as they can at those rates," said energy analyst Phil Flynn of Alaron Research. The inventory rise bolstered the supply cushion against the impact of Iraq's 30-day export embargo which will start to be felt in the United States until later this month. Iraq, the world's eighth largest oil exporter and major supplier to the United States, suspended oil sales on April 8 to protest Israeli raids into Palestinian towns and U.S. support for Israel. "A couple of weeks down the road we'll start to see the impact of Iraqi barrels missing," energy analyst Jim Ritterbusch of Ritterbusch & Associates said. Baghdad exports about 2 million barrels per day (bpd) under a U.N. humanitarian oil-for-food swap permitted as an exception to U.N. sanctions imposed at the end of the 1991 Gulf War sparked by Iraq's invasion of Kuwait. Traders have added a $3-$5 "war premium" to the price of crude oil in recent months over concerns that Washington was preparing to extend its war on terrorism to Iraq, which would likely diminish supplies from the Middle East countries that hold two-thirds of global oil reserves. Crude prices have surged more than 30 percent since the beginning of the year over Middle East tensions eating into supplies to the United States, the world's biggest consumer of oil. Tuesday's withdrawal of Israeli tanks and troops from the key Palestinian town of Hebron eased those concerns a little. Oil's rally has also been fueled by supply cuts from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) which agreed to slice production by 1.5 million bpd for six months from Jan. 1 to bolster oil prices. Five non-OPEC producers, including Mexico, Russia and Norway, agreed to withdraw nearly 500,000 bpd. Some OPEC officials have said the cartel intends to continue with the supply curbs after it meets June 26. Gasoline prices at the pump have risen more than 25 percent since January. The current average price of $1.39 cents a gallon, however, is 23 cents lower than a year ago, according to the U.S. Department of Energy. (C) Reuters Limited 2002.