I'd be interested to hear your take (also anyone else's observations) on what you envision for tomorrow...in general
In general... (since I really have no idea, nor I have a crystal ball --nor believe in them -g)...
Since 6 months ago or so plus or minus. I trade day by day by day... I try to see what the trend will be for the day (minus unexpected news of course)... and then simply scalp the hell out of 3 to 4 stocks (in most cases I do not exceed 3 positions at any one time.) Long or short, once I have determined the trend for the day, I could not care less to be a bear or bull --but never a pig, I will take profits small but often.
IF I have a profitable trade, at the slight sign of reversal (against the direction I traded).. I am out. This has the short coming that my profit per trade is not going to be very large. But then, I keep trying and so far, it has kept me in the black and above all safe from any disaster -- and THAT is what counts for me.
So for tomorrow... who knows, it depends on how the futures are in the AM and what kind of news will be available. I believe that the CSCO (kid) factor is over-stated as there are quite a number of stocks (non-tech) that could not care less if CSCO tanked or exploded up.
The Fed ? my opinion is that they will not change interest rates at all for a while. They have become the de-facto central bank for the world and therefore, it will take some serious inflation warnings in the US for them to move. For now, measurable inflation is dead. --send donations to the Federal Reserve of your choice-- before the funeral. [but be careful as it could come back from the dead and bite you in the arse, so buy lots of (well located and particularly now that int rates are low, he, he, he...) income producing real estate and that should take care of the inflation spirit.]
So we are left with Middle East news (and since the terrorist-hypocrite Arafat is out of his hole, and most importantly in "diplomatic" mode for the moment, I doubt there will be a self-immolation explosion by one of his dupes for now.
A possible concern is Arafat's distant cousin, terrorist at large, red-neck activist, sending pipe bombs in the midwest.
Oil... OPEC is a bad taste joke and has been for a while, (example IRAQ's threat HO HO HO) There are countries like Russia and Mexico, who are not OPEC members and need the $$$ so, there may be mini-shocks here and there and probably hysteria-news driven but no serious long term effect. If any, and once the US engineers decide they've had enough of the Middle East PMS rants and decide that we could use alternative sources of energies, oil would be dead... long shot there as there are lots of interest this does not really happen. too bad.
If nothing in the news front happens, then we'll see. Certainly, the possibility of a near term over-sold rally could present itself but I doubt it as in a way it would depend on the CSCO (or maybe QLGC) earning news and I believe both are after the close.
Even so... the rally in time will be sold again.
I do pay attention to the currency markets, as a guide/proxy (primarily the value of the dollar), since Disneyland... er... no Euroland is by edict of the burrocrats the only possible currency it could compete against the US Dollar (but I doubt it). I do not believe in gold, it is medieval, costs to store it and cumbersome. Yes I know, it has been going up, (but so have other small company stocks), without the risk of the speculative nature of gold --which can go down too and its value IMO has been reduced to the demand of speculators for the most part. And for that... I would rather scalp real companies, than hold my hopes on the yellow metal. (unless you are planning to go back to the times of King Arthur) I don't.
Lastly... the "too-little-too-late" cries by the politicians (ie the SEC and accomplices), about the lack of ethics by the Wall Streeters will only add to the sentiment of the sell, sell, sell battle cry.
I wish I had taken this strategy a year ago with more gusto, but I did not and such is life. Today I seem to be less worried about what will happen in the circus of gamble and deceit (aka Wall Street), as I essentially take one day at a time (IMO no other way to do it, and it has been so for a while).
I did not see any rush to cover in the stocks that I follow, this may possibly mean that there will be more of the same... SELL and SELL but without the ability to see the order flow of things, I am limited to my interpretation as the chart develops at the time of the trades (that means wait until tomorrow and then I will tell you -gg-)
p.s. being forced to watch soap operas by my relatives when I was a child is now paying off tremendously as I learned the various scripts well, so now, it becomes easier for me to recognize the plots of much less accomplished writers of today's real life drama, such as politicians, burrocrats, terrorist-diplomats, ego maniacs, and even Voodoo stock market technicians who pretend to tell me what the future will be.
[in my book they are all snake oil preachers who, for different reasons and/or motivations, they suffer from delusion that forces them to believe that they can tell the future. (this, of course at a fee or related cost, usually to the unsuspected believer/subscriber/victim as it may be applicable) --Surprisingly, there are huge numbers of people who actually believe their fables and so they suffer accordingly]. |
