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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sarmad Y. Hermiz who wrote (63852)	5/16/2002 8:42:56 PM
From: Gottfried	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Sarmad, I am not able to extrapolate the slope of rising bookings yet. Gottfried

To: Sarmad Y. Hermiz who wrote (63852)	5/16/2002 9:15:59 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

re: <<when we see either GDP or semi equip bookings rise to the level of the previous peak, to me that will be a signal to sell all>> That depends on the demand for chips among end-users. If we see a few KillerApps in wireless devices, if we get a big PC upgrade cycle, that will prolong the just-beginning upcycle. The number to watch is the % of semi's sales dollars going to capex, and the % capacity utilization at fabs (especially foundry cutting-edge fabs). These are ratios of the supply/demand balance, which are more usefull indicators than the absolute numbers for either demand or supply. One of the lessons of the last cycle, was: the peak in semiequip bookings was a badly lagging indicator. It kept going up for a while, while the stocks were collapsing. If you waited till bookings were clearly downtrending, you got out way too late. And if you sold when bookings hit the peak of the previous cycle, you got out too early. I will probably just use valuation, as I always have, and get out too early, as I usually do.