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Non-Tech : Tyco International Limited (TYC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tatnic who wrote (3330)	6/3/2002 5:48:34 PM
From: RGM	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 3770

Is this an offer for a bet? Are you offering odds of 15 to 1 that TYC is going to see single digits? If so, I might take you up on that bet if I had a third party holding the $$$. From a prior message of mine posted on April 16th: Message 17391476 "Between now and when the IPO goes public, I believe TYC shall see the 13 - 15 range before going back to 25. When it is in that price range, I shall double my Jan03 $10 & $15 naked put positions and pick up a significant amount of long shares. In my opinion, Koz blew it - his creditability is zero with the street and many institutional investors. The only way TYC mgmt shall regain creditability is by getting rid of him. He is probably a great operating manager. Without doing so, it shall take TYC many years for institutional investors to have full confidence in TYC's mgmt (those intangibles, like creditability and quality of the mgmt, are half of the investment decision). I do not know what type of people are on the Board, but I am pretty sure once they see the stock price go below 15, they are going to move quickly on finding a replacement." Sounds like you are short TYC? If so, congratulations on TYC's bad luck. Today, it appeared to me that there was "capitulation" by some investors and institutional holders of TYC shares. If so, tomorrow shall continue with the selling by others. You may have a point or two more to squeeze out of TYC if you are short. From a 6 month time perspective, TYC is a great buy at this level. I think Swartz should become the CEO as he sounded very credible re the conference calls that I listened to. Being long this stock requires a strong stomach and the experience of knowing a company the size of TYC is not dependable on one man. I do not believe TYC is another ENE. Hell of a way for him to exit though, but it was quick instead of a being slow. At least he did not exit by killing himself! So how much are you willing to bet re TYC seeing single digits with your 15 to 1 odds? Was tempted to get into WMB and DUK, but did not cause the energy sector is still wrapped in the ENE experience, especially the way these guys do their accounting re energy transactions and WMB future stock dilution. Rob