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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: smolejv@gmx.net who wrote (19440)	6/3/2002 5:05:39 PM
From: Raymond Duray	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Hi Dolinar, Re: well, seen from a different angle, ROW is realizing that a dollar of treasuries and other family jewels out of the US chest is not worth 1$ (of Au, eu etc) anymore. Here's how one of my correspondents summed it up today: Bush is "Spending money like druken sailors while tax receipts decline precipitously and then folks want to know why the US dollar is collapsing..." Huge government deficits as far as the eye can see, war-mongering, private debt crisis, inflated real estate prices, zero recovery in CAPEX spending, sans DoD waste, corporate financials trusted less than the Sunday comics, government complicity with the corporate crooks, ethics near an all-time low, etc. Where else does the Yanqui Dolore$ have to go but in the toilet? "The answer my friend, is pissing in the wind, the answer is pissing in the wind." Apologies to Bob Dylan

To: smolejv@gmx.net who wrote (19440)	6/3/2002 6:19:25 PM
From: EL KABONG!!!	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Dolinar, My point is that any effort by the Japanese to maintain a weak yen will ultimately be futile. Yes, they might have some impact on today's exchange rate or even tomorrow's and the day after that, but currency exchange rates are like the waters of the great oceans. They seek their own level based on conditions not easily controlled by man (or Central Banks for that matter). In the end, the Japanese Central Bank will have "lost" value after all of the exchanges. They would be better off just riding out the down business cycle, presuming they believe that someday the dollar will rise again. Perhaps they believe otherwise. I know that Japan claims to have much in the way of cash reserves. I just don't think that meddling in the currency markets is a good way of using the reserves to the benefit of the Japanese economy. I do think it may be an excellent way to curry political favor though, for what that's worth... KJC

To: smolejv@gmx.net who wrote (19440)	6/3/2002 6:37:51 PM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Hello DJ, DAK is chilling next to the pool and stopped trading gold for a bit. The Japanese are pissing in the wind and hoping that the wind will change direction before their pants get soaked, which I am supposing it would, because a central bank can always manage to lower its currency even if it has to introduce negative deposit rate. What are you doing, besides watching your currency making you unsatisfying-ly richer in USD terms? Looking forward to sustained productivity growth without inflation? Ready to accept another dollop of interest rate increase without suffering a slowdown? Set to taste test the Goldilocks porridge? The movie segment last night was to predictable in the greater theme, as in DDGU, but the Tyco palace coup added a twist. To think, we are not into the summer slow season yet, and still can look forward to the annual October fretting season. I am guessing that the HK market will poo in pants, and so I am sure I am wrong. DDGU, Jay