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Strategies & Market Trends : MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: J.T. who wrote (12626)	6/9/2002 1:37:32 AM
From: lifeisgood	Respond to of 19219

On the other hand... Message 17577777 especially, "In bear markets, indexes usually bounce on the initial test of a major support level, only to fail miserably on the second test" Dow had the initial test Friday and next test of 9500 will fall with force. (9000 is next major support after 9500) This could happen any day or it could take 1-2 weeks or maybe after quarter end, but the break is coming almost for sure. and... there is zero catalyst for any meaningful bounce other then technical. The market needs pessimism to make a true bottom. Right now there just isn't enough of that as many are screaming bottom. Market needs 9/11 kind of pessimism, not optimistic buy the bottom moronic thinking, to take a solid stand. Long as the bagholders are screaming "BOTTOM" it just wont happen and the slow bleed will just keep on coming. In coming months VALUATION will rule and right now that an ugly word on wall street as there is still a ton of fat left to burn. FWIW, my personal prediction... Message 17458109 best... LIG

To: J.T. who wrote (12626)	6/9/2002 2:01:10 AM
From: lifeisgood	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 19219

Meanwhile, back at the ranch, The NYSE members have **MATCHED 1995 year end consecutive week accumulation conundrum and now have amassed 777,844 Million Shares bought and buried 14 out of the last 15 reporting weeks since Feb 15 with two week lag delay. Doubly explosive is the specialists continue to get outshorted by the inmates as the public continues its short binge now 22 weeks in a row every week in 2002 since the 12/21/01 reporting week. The notion that the "smart money" is long is simply not supported by the current facts. Instead, it appears that the pro's are getting shorter and the daytrading speculator is getting more bullish. This is NOT a good thing if you're long. softwarenorth.net best... LIG

To: J.T. who wrote (12626)	6/9/2002 8:25:14 AM
From: sschatz	Respond to of 19219

Hi JT, I have been unable to get the Rydex site since Friday night.Any suggestions ? Thanks, Seymour Schatz

To: J.T. who wrote (12626)	6/9/2002 11:04:16 AM
From: getanewlife	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 19219

J.T., I asked Zeev his point of view on this. His reply: "I have not followed J.T. but if he is calling for a low next week, he does not differ from the turnips, the question is if that is going to be "the low" or not, or if the September lows are going to be breached, right now, I am still in the camp that September was the lows, but that "cycle" is coming to an end in few weeks. I used to follow the specialist shorting on NYSE, however, the data are always two weeks late, so i stopped using them for quite sometime. I don't see any public orgy of shorting, the short interest has certainly not gone "agog", and the public was surely not buying puts with abandon, recently. Au contraire, the institutions have been buying loads of puts on the indices, possibly sufficient insurance against that net 770 MM shares in their inventory (not even a day trading on the NYSE). In any event, my worst case scenario sees a rally no later than the end of this month or if we get serious capitulation before (not even a mild sign of that yet). In edit, I just tried to see what are J.T.'s positions, I checked currently, he is 100% long, I also checked 4/22, the day I donned my bear suit, and he was long, and at randomn on 4/27 he was still long. Do you know if he stayed long through the whole period from 4/22, or did he took stuff off the table in between and just recently redeployed? Zeev Another thoughtful by Rick: "I wonder if you have done anything else with the nyse shorting numbers. It seems to me that the relative ratio for the post bubble or atleast dec 01, no longer has the same dynamics. I wonder if the ratio itself has to be higher at the bottom, ie, instead of week of 1.1 pub/spec, then you need 1.3+; also the absolute numbers ie, the pub is 400 and the spec are 300 etc . Perhaps, the indicator is no longer useful and in fact a sign of the usual wrongness of the crowd unless at extremes. If the indicator has been positive for 16/17 weeks and the market has been in a range or gone down, this is actually ominous in terms of market direction. Have you looked at the ratio just prior to the bear market rallies to see this year if the indicator has any merit. As Zeev has pointed out, the 2 week lag makes it tedious to get this info unless you are well organized and commited. I suffer from having a very full time job and have not been able to do this! Have you looked at the ratio of member to public-- as this may make the indicator more useful. Please understand that these suggestions are not critical; I wish I had time to dissect this tool, as I think the info still contains value. thanks, Rick Hope you give some thoughts on these perspectives Best wishes, gf

To: J.T. who wrote (12626)	6/9/2002 4:58:07 PM
From: Square_Dealings	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 19219

Rydex Assets Having observed the Rydex assets in the XAU funds vs the XAU it seems that; 1. A new high in total assets which is not confirmed by a new high in the index or sector is indicative of a top (As occurred on June 3 in the Rydex XAU) 2. A significant drop in assets which is not confirmed by a corresponding drop in the index is bullish. 3. A significant increase in assets which is not confirmed by a corresponding increase in the index is bearish. So using this I still find that since the XAU assets have dropped by around 20% from the high on June 3 that the XAU has only declined by 10% and so this is still bullish. While it may not be time to jump in I guess the best entry would be when the Rydex assets decline is no longer met by a decline in the XAU or that the XAU actually increases on a small increase or declining Rydex assets. Biotech assets on the other hand have increased in the last week (but not significantly) while the index has declined. So it still seems bearish for biotechs. Another good example of a bullish set up is the energy fund. Assets dropped 16% over the last week but the Rydex energy fund price only dropped 3.6%. Does this analysis seem valid? It seems this way of measuring input (total assets change) vs output (change in index or sector value) may be better for prediction since it will adjust for the fact that an asset class may increase or decrease in value without more money being put in or taken out. Not sure if I am explaining this clearly but for example the XAU assets could increase without more money going in if the value of the XAU increases. In that case it may not mean that its overbought. It seems that overbought conditions occur when more money goes in and the price doesnt go up, regardless of what the absolute value is of the total assets. M.

To: J.T. who wrote (12626)	6/10/2002 3:04:20 PM
From: Challo Jeregy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 19219

JT and all, does anyone remember LaVerne E. Olney, from SI? I noticed that he/she hasn't posted on SI since Sept. 11, at 8:36 am (est). Does anyone know anything about him/her? I just sent an e-mail. Message 16329249

To: J.T. who wrote (12626)	6/10/2002 11:47:36 PM
From: J.T.	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 19219

Rydex Total Assets Update for Monday, June 10th, 2002: ************* Money Market 1.634 BILLIONBULLISH Double Overbought ************* Regular Series: (100% Correlation to Index (Nova 150%)) SPX Long - NOVA 225.9 MillionBULLISH Oversold SPX Short- URSA 328.7 MillionBULLISH Double Overbought NDX Long - OTC 582.3 MillionBULLISH Triple Oversold Lowest Close Since October 1998 NDX Short- ARKTOS 148.1 MillionBULLISH Double Overbought ********** Dynamic Series: (200% correlation to Index) SPX Long - TITAN 95.5 MillionBULLISH Double Oversold SPX Short- TEMPEST 222.8 MillionBULLISH Overbought Near/At All Time Highs NDX Long - VELOCITY 144.2 MillionBULLISH Double Oversold NDX Short- VENTURE 233.7 MillionBULLISH Double Overbought Sector Funds: XAU Precious Metals 79.5 MillionBULLISH Oversold XOI Energy 20.7 MillionBULLISH Triple Oversold OSX Energy Services 25.3 MillionBULLISH Quadruple Oversold BKX Banking 38.0 MillionBULLISH Double Oversold BTK Biotech 145.3 MillionBULLISH Triple Oversold Near New 3 1/2 Year Low RUT 2000 - MIKROS 42.4 MillionBULLISH Triple Oversold RLX Retail 45.2 MillionBULLISH Telecommunications 5.4 MillionBULLISH Double Oversold SOX Electronics 50.4 MillionBULLISH Double Oversold ******************************************* In the battering 1974 Great Bear Market, the public shorted at greater magnitude above the specialists in 43 out of the 52 reporting weeks. In the more stringent test, the public shorted above the NYSE members in 4 out of 52 weeks. So far in 2002, the public has shorted above the specialists 22 out of 22 weeks. In the more stringent test, the public has shorted above the NYSE members in 5 out of 22 weeks. If we go back to when the short action really began to heat up, one only needs to go back to an additional 20 weeks back beginning with the August 17th reporting week. Since that time, the public has shorted above the specialists in 38 out of the last 42 reporting weeks. In the more stringent test, the public has shorted above the NYSE members in 9 of the last 42 reporting weeks. In summary, it is highly inconceivable that the NYSE members and Specialists are wrong at the same time and the public is right in placing bets on the next major move in the market. The MELT-UP is drawing nigh just as the dark gives way to the light. Regular Series: 100% Long NDX OTC Dynamic Series: 100% SPX Long TITAN Best Regards, J.T.