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To: Zeev Hed who wrote (14359)	6/8/2002 11:43:27 PM
From: Gottfried	Respond to of 23153

Zeev, thank you for the advice on P/C. Gottfried [end]

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (14359)	6/9/2002 2:22:48 AM
From: Warpfactor	Respond to of 23153

Equity P/C ratio, from Don Hays website: "As the name implies this indicator simply compares the daily volume of the equity puts to that of the calls that are traded on the CBOE. This data is given each day on the CBOE's excellent website. It is an excellent way to measure points of overdone optimism and pessimism. It is a contrary indictor, and the signal attempts to go exactly opposite to the moods of these usually wrong option traders. This indicator has been very good in the past on a penetration of the 72% level. Very rarely, this will move to 90%, and that has been a sign that a significant bottom is extremely close." Don Hays tracks closing equity P/C ratio on his site, with a chart from 10/2000. Only 2 times has this indicator exceeded 1.00 since that time. In September of last year was one such time - actually closing over 1.00 on what appears to be 3 separate dates following the WTC Islamist action. The other time seems to have been in mid-February of this year. 0.90 hits have been much more frequent since 10/2000, and have not always led to reversals. Just like the ARMS Index, it may be a good idea to bump up this indicator to 1.00 in our current bearish environment.

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (14359)	6/9/2002 10:18:44 AM
From: Murray Grummitt	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 23153

Zeev, can you explain the discrepancy that always exists between the Equity P/C ratios of CBOE cboe.com 0.722 at the close Friday and ThomsonFN thomsonfn.com 0.69 at the end of last week? Frequently the discrepancy is much greater than this. Murray

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (14359)	6/16/2002 12:29:25 PM
From: Warpfactor	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 23153

Hi Zeev, <<<<Gottfried, if you want to use the P/C ratio, be careful, most services quote the total P/C ratio, including on indices, I find that a much better indicator if the "equities" only P/C ratio, I calculate this directly from the CBOE site, only very important at turning points... typically, .42 and under, near tops, and 1.0 and over near bottoms.>>> Let's assume for the sake of argument that I think that the market will open up tomorrow and then reverse sometime intraday to continue its inexorable plunge downward. In addition to the guideline that you list above (0.42 and under for equity P/C ratio), what other market technical indicators do you use to identify these intraday reversal points? Or if not market technical indicators, are there any stocks or index that tend to habitually forecast a change in tide? For example - gold equities turning upward. Warp