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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (37481)	7/2/2002 5:14:52 PM
From: Logain Ablar	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 68181

Harry: Went long today in quite some software and storage stocks. Also tried eln (already underwater) for a bounce @ 1.8.

To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (37481)	7/2/2002 11:26:13 PM
From: Johnny Canuck	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 68181

TODAY'S BOX SCORE: Trading Diary: $792,489 -56,710 (-6.68%) Dow 9,007.75 -102.04 (-1.12%) Nasdaq 1,357.82 -45.98 (-3.28%) S&P 500 948.09 -20.56 (-2.12%) *Note that Trading Diary performance based on hypothetical positions. See disclaimer at thetechtrader.com. -------------------------------------------------- PATH OF LEAST RESISTANCE STILL DOWN By Harry Boxer, The Technical Trader (www.thetechtrader.com) It was another disappointing day as the market opened lower, went down in the morning as it has been doing recently and had a mid-day basing attempt. Then it staged a rally attempt in early afternoon that only managed to break out of very short-term intraday resistance, but failed to get above this early morning’s highs. When that occurred we rolled over, came down and closed at the lows for the day going away. Similar action on the S&P 500. The downtrend continues, and today the technicals got more steeply negative. At one point the NYSE tick got near –1000, which helped set up that mid-day rally. However, we’re just not getting extreme enough negative tick readings that I want to see, and we’re also not getting the big VIX/VXN readings, although they were up today, with the VIX reaching as high as 34.64, closing up 3.13 at 33.69. The Nasdaq VXN reading was up to almost 62, but closed under 60, up about 2.12. Those are readings that are getting up there but not quite at the extremes I’ve seen at important lows. Which means we still may have more to do on the downside. A review of the technicals today showed that advance-declines were 3-1 negative on New York, with 2456 down and 793 up. Nasdaq had similar numbers with 846 up and 2586 down, about 3-1 negative there as well. Up/down volume was extremely negative, with 183 million up and 1.5 billion down or negative 8 to 1. On Nasdaq, up/down volume was 1 billion up and 1.6 billion down. That final number may be skewed somewhat by Worldcom, so you can take that with a grain of salt. Worldcom was up a few cents today on 820 million shares. If that’s taken out of the equation then the up/down volume on Nasdaq was also negative 8 to1 today! There was a lot of activity on my personal board today, with most stocks trading back and forth but not able to make much progress to the upside and finally rolling over at the end of the day. There were only two winners on my board. IBM, which was strong all day, managed to close up a point, which is by far the best performer. Checkpoint had a big reversal from an earlier new low at 10.37, closing at 12.58, up 47 cents. On the losing side, Brocade got hammered for almost 2 points. QLogic was down 1.46, Qualcomm 1.63, and Microsoft 1.22, leading the market down in the afternoon decline. It was certainly another poor day today to say the least, and right now it looks like momentum is still strong to the downside. You may see lower lows tomorrow, and unfortunately we may have to set up a real big negative washout before we can get a sizeable rally. There’s no follow-through on the upside as each rally attempt is met with additional waves of selling, and stocks are following the path of least resistance which is still down. Good trading! Harry (c)2002, The Technical Trader (www.thetechtrader.com), published by AdviceTrade, Inc. and Century-Pacific Investments. Harry Boxer is an award-winning, widely syndicated technical analyst and author of The Technical Trader, which features a real-time diary of Harry's minute-by-minute trades and market insights, plus annotated technical charts & stock picks, based on Harry's 30 years experience as a Wall Street technical analyst.