Hi Maurice, <<I have to confess to enjoying the market rout ... stash of cash which is waiting to be converted back into something a bit more robust than a greenback>>
... You are welcome:0)
<<I had been expecting a market crunch but did NOT expect such a serious one>>
... Is a crunch a few notches below a collapse?
<<Fortunately, I cleared the decks and made arrangements just in case such an event came to pass. So, let it rip>>
Now do you see what I meant about watching the carnage through the rifle scope?
<<people join the Matrix of Malevolence>>
speaking of which, I believe US peace keeping monitors will need to be stationed in this convoluted situation soon:
stratfor.com
The Mystery of the Suspected Israeli Traitors
22 July 2002
Summary
Five Israelis were arrested by the Israeli government on July 18, charged with selling ammunition to a Palestinian paramilitary organization. Four of the five were serving in the Israel Defense Forces, in which one was a major. Given the relatively small amounts of money that appear to be involved, their alleged actions are difficult to understand. This inevitably raises speculation as to whether other motives may have been involved.
Analysis
On July 18, the Israeli government announced the arrest of five Israelis charged with selling about 60,000 rounds of ammunition to a representative of Tanzim, a Palestinian paramilitary organization linked to Yasser Arafat's Fatah group. According to leaks by Israeli police, the sales went substantially beyond just ammunition and included weapons and other military equipment.
Sources quoted by the Israeli press predict these arrests represent "just the tip of the iceberg" and that additional, even more shocking evidence will be revealed shortly. The Israelis also reported arresting a Palestinian from the nearby Palestinian town of Tarqumiya who acted as an intermediary between the Israelis and Tanzim.
Two of the arrested, brothers Moshe and Nadav Cohen, come from the settlement of Telem, on the West Bank, near Hebron. Another two, Roi Amar and Oded Mulai, come from the nearby settlement of Adora. All but Mulai are active-duty personnel in the Israel Defense Forces, and Amar was reported to be a member of an elite unit of the border patrol. A fifth detainee, Kobi Uliel, was a reserve major in the IDF and lived in southern Israel. A sixth person, Sela Amar, Roi Amar's brother, was arrested but released.
There have been thefts of weapons and munitions in the past, and the trend has been intensifying. Thirty-six cases of theft had been uncovered in the past six months. However, most of the thefts were carried out by Israeli criminals who on occasion sold weapons to Palestinian criminals. This was the first case revealed in which active-duty soldiers, including officers, stole munitions and sold them directly to a Palestinian group. To compound the shock, Adora, a settlement of fewer than 200 Israelis and the home of the Amars and Mulai, was the target of an attack by Palestinian gunmen on May 27. Four Israelis were killed, including a 5-year-old girl.
There is a double shock to Israel here. First, the idea that residents of a settlement might have sold weapons and ammunition that killed their neighbors is stunning. Second, the idea that active-duty Israeli soldiers had, in effect, collaborated with Fatah's paramilitaries in order to make money strikes at the very heart of Israel's self-understanding. There have been espionage and smuggling cases in the past. About five years ago, an Israeli had been arrested for selling chemicals to Iran that could be used for chemical warfare. In the 1950s, there was a famous case in which an Israeli was found to be spying for the Soviets.
However, such cases are few and far between. Israel sees itself as an embattled nation in which the fate of each individual depends on the loyalty and sacrifice of other individuals. Almost all Israelis serve in the military and are indoctrinated there, and in school, with the idea of shared fate. In very large and powerful countries, such betrayals are seen as ultimately abstract and impersonal. In Israel, they are seen as concrete and personal. A theme repeated by Israelis in the wake of this arrest was that the bullets stolen and sold by Amar and Mulai might have been the ones that killed their neighbors. The intimate connection between betrayal and the fate of loved ones was always thought to have made such betrayal impossible.
If the Israeli police are correct and the charges are proven in court, then this sort of betrayal is not only possible, but has been going on for several years. Indeed, it may explain some of the operations carried out by the Palestinians of late, which involved the use of Israeli uniforms and weapons. Tanzim in particular appears to have been tasked with these sorts of missions.
Unlike Hamas and the Al Aqsa Martyrs Brigade, Tanzim has not been involved in suicide bombings. Rather, it has focused on more conventional attacks on Israeli settlements and military targets, striking and attempting to withdraw. Tanzim may also have been involved in multiple attacks on Israeli armored vehicles using anti-tank mines and missiles.
The question at the time was where the Palestinians had obtained such munitions, and the Israelis assumed they had gotten them from outside sources. Now, the question becomes whether at least some of these weapons originated in Israel, stolen by Israeli soldiers and sold to the Palestinians.
One explanation for all this is that a profound rot has infected Israel. At least five Israelis are being accused of involvement in a multi-year operation, and Israeli officials are clearly indicating that more may be involved. This is not, therefore, one or two people, but a broader ring that was able to carry out treasonable activities for several years.
Perhaps this is not moral rot, in the sense that only a very few Israelis are involved, but it certainly represents another Israeli intelligence failure of substantial proportions. The Israelis are involved in a war with the Palestinians, and choking off weapons supplies to the Palestinians is obviously critical. Israeli intelligence knew that the Palestinians were obtaining weapons: They said so repeatedly and publicly.
Yet they were not able to detect this operation. Perhaps it was beyond their imagination that settlers on the West Bank could have been engaged in what is, after all, self-destructive behavior. But intelligence officers are supposed to think about things that go beyond their imagination. It's their job.
There is something that remains unsatisfying about this story. At least five people were involved in the operation. It was reported that they were paid 12 cents per round. That comes to $7,200 for 60,000 rounds, or $1,440 for each of five individuals. To endanger one's family -- not to mention commit treason -- for $1,440 seems odd.
Obviously, more weapons and equipment were transferred than we have so far been told about, but to make it really profitable, very large amounts would have to have been transferred. That means that more people would have been involved and that the amount each individual received might be higher. But these amounts are not going to make anyone wealthy, so it is very hard to imagine that those involved were doing this for money.
Adora and Telem are sister settlements located near Hebron. Unlike other settlements in the area, Adora and Telem are not settled by the most extreme religious activists such as those that have settled other towns. In general, Adora and Telem have been settled by people looking for inexpensive housing and prepared to incur the dangers of life near Hebron in return. Certainly they may still have developed an ideological or economic attachment to the settlements. They were settled there and wanted to remain.
Under Ehud Barak, the viability of both settlements was cast into doubt. Under the contemplated withdrawals currently being discussed, both settlements would have been left in place but would have been completely surrounded by territory under Palestinian control. Depending on developing circumstances, the settlements might or might not have been able to survive; most likely they would not. This was one of the reasons that Israel's opposition to Barak opposed the Wye Plantation outlines for a territorial settlement. It was certainly one of the reasons why the residents of Adora and Telem opposed them.
It was about this time -- the dates are still unclear -- that the accused supposedly began stealing munitions and selling them to the Palestinians. Thus, an alternative theory emerges for which there is no evidence but which cannot be dismissed out of hand. Namely, that the conspirators had political motivations rather than financial ones.
There was intense opposition in Israel both to the Oslo Accords and the follow-on peace plans. The argument was that the Palestinians were not genuinely committed to peace and that any territorial concession would be used for later operations against Israel. In its most extreme form, there was a belief that implementing the Oslo Accords would lead to the destruction of Israel.
Former Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin was shot and killed by a man who held these views. Whether reasonable or not, the view was sincerely held by a substantial number of Israelis. Nowhere were these views more widely held than among the settlers on the West Bank. Apart from the strategic arguments, the settlers had religious reasons to oppose the agreements. They also had economic reasons. They felt that their homes were in jeopardy.
For this faction, war between the Palestinians and the Israelis was inevitable. If the Oslo Accords were implemented, the war would occur under the worst possible circumstances for the Israelis. Thus, if war was inevitable, it made sense to this faction that it come sooner rather than later -- certainly before any settlements or territory were given away and before Israel's strategic position deteriorated.
The problem was that the Israeli government was not prepared to launch this war and that the Palestinians did not have the wherewithal to launch it themselves. It follows logically that if the Palestinians were given the wherewithal, then the Palestinians might voluntarily or under pressure trigger operations. If they did, then the ability of the Israeli government to pursue a settlement with the Palestinians would dissolve and the settlements, although embattled, would continue to exist.
Obviously, this posed an enormous risk to the settlements, since the Palestinians might strike at them. However, if you are operating under the assumption that a peace treaty will lead to national catastrophe, then this might be the kind of risk you would be prepared to incur.
Let us emphasize again: This is pure speculation. We do not know the motivation of these men. There are two theories on the table. In one, a group of settlers serving in the Israeli army, including a field-grade officer, sold material to the Palestinians for a relatively small amount of money, obviously aware that this transfer might endanger the lives of their families and friends. They carry out these operations for years without detection by Israeli security forces.
In the other theory, a group of settlers, committed to saving their homes and protecting their country, conspired to arm the Palestinians in the hopes that the Palestinians would use those weapons against Israel, thereby aborting a peace process that they believed would end in the destruction of their country.
The problem we have is that neither theory is ultimately satisfying. A single deranged man might give weapons to people who might kill your family, but it is difficult to imagine at least five people capable of functioning in the Israeli army being so callous and stupid. A political conspiracy is possible, but it is not clear why they would have thought that selling weapons to the Palestinians would trigger the war they wanted -- if they wanted a war. The Palestinians had other sources of weapons, and merely getting weapons wouldn't trigger a war.
So, there are now two bad theories to explain an incomprehensible event. It is not clear which one will triumph or if a third will emerge. But whichever it is, it will no doubt cause a massive crisis of confidence in Israel. The core belief of the Israelis has always been the loyalty and solidarity of the Jews to one another. Rabin's assassination stunned Israel because it violated that foundational belief. This event, perhaps as much as or more than the assassination, will create another crisis of confidence. |
