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Strategies & Market Trends : Bob Brinker: Market Savant & Radio Host -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tim Bagwell who wrote (16368)	8/2/2002 5:18:13 PM
From: Kirk ©	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42834

What really adds to the mystery of it all is the crazy recommendation to buy the Business to business sector fund TEFQX while saying it was "the tip of the iceberg." He correctly preached of high valuations then picked the absolute fattest pig to buy at the very top. Brinker, Jan 8, 2000 MT Firsthand e-Commerce Fund, (888-883-3863) is added to page four of the Recommended list this month. We will include a writeup (sic) on this fund in the February Marketimer. For now, we would limit investments in this fund to 5%, and this 5% would be part of our revised 25% overall United States equity weighting. This fund is expected to be volatile, therefore it is appropriate only for very high risk tolerance investors. Brinker, Feb 8, 2000 MT: "Firsthand e-Commerce Fund (TEFQX) is the newest addition to the Marketimer No-Load Fund Recommended List on Page four…… We have ALWAYS viewed books, toys and on-line auctions as the tip of the iceberg for electronic business. We believe business-to-business transactions will greatly surpass retail e-commerce including software development tools, database providers, hardware manufacturers and service providers. We are very positive on the potential for the internet growth track to carry forward through international penetration. We are hopeful the fund will be able to add many of the best positioned B2B companies going forward. Many of these companies are not yet publicly owned but will come to market in the future." Pg 8 of any MT: "Portfolio 1 is designed for investors with aggressive growth investment objectives. Such investors seek maximum returns and are willing and able to accept high levels of risk and volatility." It would be hard to believe if we didn't see it unfold before our very eyes!

To: Tim Bagwell who wrote (16368)	8/2/2002 6:03:58 PM
From: geode00	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42834

LOL. However, IMO, I see Brinker as thinking that a bear could ensue due to a parabolic rise in prices that far outstripped earnings. However, I also think he thought it would be short and that the internet miracle would revive the bull after a nice downdraft to take out some of the excesses. I think this because: 1. He never said sell 2. He never increased (even by another 5%) his 60-->65---? cash allocation. 3. He never put the cash into anything longterm so that it would be readily available to deploy into the next bull. It's still sitting in MMFs regardless of how much he yammers about GNMAs. 4. He never bought any of the contra funds that he had pointed out time and again he would buy if he saw a bear. Well, he didn't buy so he didn't (hasn't seen) see a bear. 5. He thought a new bull would put a safety net under the QQQs just in case the CTR didn't materialize. This scenario also explains his hyping of TEFQX as the tip of the iceberg (yeah, the one that sunk a million 401Ks). IMO he's in full and total denial.