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To: Earlie who wrote (186962)	8/9/2002 9:39:21 PM
From: Earlie	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 436258

Earlie from Earlie: An interesting week, and one that I have (for a change) watched with a low level of adrenalin. The foxhole has been very comfortable and the weeds have provided a cozy vantage point from which to observe the action. It's been a long while since I have managed to refrain from entering the lists (i.e., back into short positions) too "early", effectively wrecking several decently timed recent exits. Currently there are no short positions at this end whatsoever, but it has been hard to stay out, what with IBM deliciously squirting back up onto the targeting radar above $70 and the semi equips bouncing back to provide yet another ride as the fall approaches. Timing the short side re-entry isn't going to be easy, especially with Greenprint stepping up to the plate next week, and option expiration just around the corner, but I expect to commence taking on some "first thirds" early in the week, especially on any continuation of the current enthusiasm. Delightfully, my favourite old nags appear to be well rested and properly fed. Almost time to "saddle up". (g) While happy to have missed this recent rally, I am convinced that the continuing, indeed accelerating erosion of the U.S. economy will become highly visible to even the dullest sheep this fall. "Pushing on a string" is spreading fast. And September/October timeframes have historically been inclined to give markets some "bad hair days". Best, Earlie

To: Earlie who wrote (186962)	8/10/2002 6:55:01 AM
From: Box-By-The-Riviera™	Read Replies (6) \| Respond to of 436258

Hey, must be time for all this market happieness to end. You are back <vbg> Just returned from europe. On the flight i had a slew of newspapers, and perhaps only by chance, there was a common theme among all of them. certainly the up coming elections in germany have highlighted the nearly 10% unemployment rate and the now huge debate regarding what once was an untouchable topic: the work week and how much should a citizen receive for social services... ranging from unemployment insurance and job retraining, to hospitalization etc... versus what the state can afford... among the politicians, nothing but hyperbole about the need for job creation to fund these programs...and job creation to replace the "dole"... but none of the hyperbole in the press or what i watched during live television interviews of the candidates ever came close to the simple reality that.. number one the states of europe are hopelessly no longer able to pay for the status quo... and secondly the business climate is what it is regardless and is not going to go away or improve just because you throw a few words at it (i.e. a la bush and team)... no one goes beyond the obvious, no REAL solutions are proposed, no REAL understanding is openly expressed. everyone just waiting for the freight train to derail. inevitably. the climate i observed in germany for example, borders on the grim, shocking even me and to such an extent caused me to consider that europe's hard fall is going to be terrific.... and that they actually are not going to replace the USA in the lead but are more likely simply to follow along regardless. i.e. when the recovery does occur... it won't start in europe. a secret pole conducted by tony blair was suddenly released this week showing a very high per cent of those questioned have little more than contempt for 43. the banking crisis in germany is simmering, and has been for some time starting with the collapse last year of a major bank in berlin vis a vis shady land deals... and now with questions regarding the basic integrity of the top national banks.. i.e. deutsche bank etc.... the central administrator for banks in germany last week pro claimed "there is no banking crisis" in the south german newspaper. people talk about what germany has become.. a country of 4 and 6 week vacations, 34 hour work week, a minimum two car family in a country with massive public transportation, a country of nothing but fun times greatly exceeding what the hours worked can afford and what the state can pay. "back to basics" is expected by everyone and a grey cloud theme beneath the surface of everything. even the unions seem to, in part, be "getting it." accidentally washed a 2 euro coin with the dirty clothes. the shiny gold and silver coin came out of the wash nearly black with no recognizable engraving on one full side. my 85 year old father in law put it in his pocket. wants to keep it so he has an excuse to pop into all the banks in town for a chat. his version of enforced conversation with bank managers with an "old" man. in his lifetime he has seen the replacement of the currency five times. the realization that what is being produced does not in turn pay for the status quo will become even more complicated with the membership of the east bloc into the EU.. i.e. companies will move production to these "mexico's".... so where will the average citizen work? selling and servicing products made somewhere else in a declining selling and servicing economy? it has already started. a farmer asked me what was going on in the USA. the USA was supposed to be the place where no one played games, the books are clean, no bribes. now it's just like everywhere else... meaning... USA=HypocraSAy.. I told him it will get worse. like 1929. he was shocked. then my wife told him i was too pessimistic to make him feel better. talked to a visiting priest from india. the state in india where he lives has more people than all of canada. he talked about call centers run by indian companies with start up costs of around 2 million dollars and employing 200 people. the call centers bill american companies around 10 dollars per hour. the workers receive a dollar. considered a very very good wage. 30 cents buys a good meal. he said india has about 100 million people who are rich or super rich. india has around 350 million people who are middle class. the remaining 550 million people are impoverished or worse. he believes india will never have enough business to ever raise the standard of living for the 550 million poorest. the 450 million rich and middle class indians already are part of the maximum economy. there is no more room. the priest administers catholic colleges teaching business. the war in kasmir is a far away place. the president of pakistan was born in india. the prime minister of india is muslim. why not just split the land and call it even, he said. it is all unusable mountains anyway.

To: Earlie who wrote (186962)	8/10/2002 3:15:40 PM
From: stan_hughes	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

Earlie - I hear ya, but I'm keeping an open mind right now as to who stands to gain the most from the present state of global affairs going forward. China's economy continues to boot merrily along despite the turmoil developing elsewhere, and is in a position to make major strides in the right direction on the issues you've raised with the right bit of tweaking. Clearly there is risk that they won't fufill all their promise on a fast track basis, but consider the flipside if they should even come close. Worth sticking a toe or three into the water there IMO