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To: mightylakers who wrote (52621)	9/2/2002 10:13:42 AM
From: Eric L	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

re: Wireless Semiconductors (QCOM, TXN, et al) Li'L Lakers, << I trust you are in agreement with the answer? ... And I trust you can help me to get the numbers right. >> Did somebody break your keyboard or your calculator? <g> Where are your numbers? <ggg> << So Q had 20% of the 3.5 bill of the Baseband and 5% of the other 3.2 bill in RF. Right? >> Right, at least in so far as WR Hambrecht + Co's semi team is concerned ... ... and that is only $860,000 ... and TI's 42% is only $1,470,000 of the baseband (and Forward Concepts credits TI with $1.86 Billion of the "programmable DSP" market in 2001). WR Hambrecht is of course only talking about the handset side of the equation only. << Now tell me what's QCT's sales for the past year? >> Sheesh, I already told you what they were for the last 9 months (first 3 months of the fiscal) ... $1.1 Billion (actually $1,107,212), and I also told you what they were last fiscal ... $1.36 Billion. Last 12 months through end of Q3 FY 02 (that I didn't tell you) were $1,444,093. I'm guessing $450,000 revenue for QCT this quarter (FQ4) so we are looking at maybe $1.5 Billion this fiscal, against the $1.9 to $2.1 Billion Lehman Brothers is projecting for TI this calendar year on the wireless DSP side of TI's semi business. You may want to double check my numbers against earnings releases. I don't cheat, but I won't verify my math. Now this all leads to an interesting question and that is what exactly does QCT's revenue consist of. Obviously MSM's are a major contributing factor and that is what Qualcomm focuses on in CCs and earnings releases, but there are also Rx/Tx Processors (IFRs, IFTs, RFRs & RFTs) and of course CSMs on the base station side. There is also systems software, development tools, and presumably some services. What else? Note above - that is a question mark - which means I have asked you a question, and you are, by my count, about a dozen answers behind to my question marks in recent weeks. <g> The CSM is something of a mystery (as a revenue contributor). Not a CC goes by that an analyst or two doesn't ask a question about CSM's (trying to get at ASP and quantities shipped) - essentially trying to figure out how it contributes to revenues and trying to figure out the implications of that as it relates in carrier cutbacks in capex. Several diligent folk on the Mod Qualcomm thread have attempted to get at the same issue. As I commented recently on another board: I find this to be a tough arena to pin down, and one of the reasons for this is the nomenclature for some components and the way manufacturers categorize the components. Evidently the way manufacturers report shipments to the World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS) organization and some reclassification from one category (perhaps from ASIC, or microperipherals, or even MCU) to another (the DSP category), has caused some confusion. It is not clear where TI categorizes MCUs If you can dust off that keyboard and add any insight into all of this, I'm sure it would be welcome since many thread regulars here, myself included, hold QCOM in significant quantity, and some also hold TXN, or other semi manufacturers with a stake in wireless. Meantime, although somewhat dated, you may be interested in this article by Will Strauss of Forward Concepts who makes a distinction between traditional DSP chips v. The ASIC DSP: Message 16664400 - Eric -