Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Bob Brinker: Market Savant & Radio Host -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tim Bagwell who wrote (16695)	9/4/2002 6:48:34 PM
From: geode00	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42834

You have to admit this is pretty amusing considering we just had a nearly 20% pop in the last month that Brinker totally missed. Now I'm supposed to believe that he will predict a 25% run over three years? I have trouble connecting the dots between those two. Fortunately our man Bob has no problem connecting profitable (for him) dots. After all, his rabid fans refuse to require him to explain all of his contradictions. However, when there is a contradiction, you can be pretty darn sure that there is a lost profit (or loss mitigating) opportunity. Note that his worst, to date, contradiction was holding onto the QQQs even when he disliked the valuation of the S&P. That led to (and it seems to be coming around again) a 75% hit.

To: Tim Bagwell who wrote (16695)	9/4/2002 8:26:10 PM
From: davidk555	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42834

The summer rally did indeed see nice results. Here are the numbers. Excerpt from David Korn's Stock Market Commentary, Interpretation of Moneytalk, Financial Education, Helpful Links, Guest Editorials and Special Alert E-mail Service. Website: begininvesting.com August 30-September 1, 2002 Edition **************** Summer Rally **************** The summer rally reached its zenith in all the major indices on August 22, 2002. After crunching the numbers, here are the percentage gains in the major indices as measured from their closing lows to their closing summer rally highs on August 22, 2002: Dow Jones Industrial Average: Percentage Gain 17.54% S&P 500 Index: Percentage Gain 20.68% Wilshire 5000: Percentage Gain 19.61% Nasdaq Composite: Percentage Gain 17.98% Nasdaq 100 (QQQ): Percentage Gain 22.01% A couple of observations on the foregoing numbers. First, with the S&P500 Index rising more than 20% on a closing basis, it technically fits the definition of what many would call a "bull market." The fact that it took only one month to make that 20% rise, however, might disqualify it from the "cyclical bull market" definition that Bob Brinker uses and which he hopes his long term stock market timing model will be able to identify. The other noteworthy item in those numbers, is that the Nasdaq was able to close much of the gap in the divergence between that index and the broader market that occurred early in the rally. Moreover, the QQQ was able to surpass all the other indices in this rally gaining 22.01% in just 15 trading days. This suggests that technology continues to lead the market on the upside, and remains a favorite vehicle for traders seeking to maximize their gains. Since the rally highs on August 22nd, the market has pulled back fairly significantly. It will be interesting to see if it can break through the prior rally heights. To do so, however, it will be fighting the headwinds of history as September has historically been a difficult month for the stock market. To read the rest of this letter, drop me a line at: davidk555@earthlink.net

To: Tim Bagwell who wrote (16695)	9/6/2002 2:57:02 PM
From: Math Junkie	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42834

Regarding Brinker's next entry point, all this agonizing over definitions of words is beside the point. (Remember "It depends on what the definition of 'is' is"?) The only issue that counts is the bottom line: are the entry points lower than the exit points? If so, is it enough to make up for the tax impact if it's a taxable account, or enough to pay the commissions if it's a tax-deferred account? One thing is for sure: there are lots of people hoping Brinker will fail.