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Politics : High Tolerance Plasticity -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: kodiak_bull who wrote (16405)	9/8/2002 9:06:50 AM
From: jim_p	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 23153

Carl Swenlin's DecisionPoint The S&P 500 Still Has a Long Way to Fall Charts courtesy of DecisionPoint.com Our current downside projection is for 350 on the S&P 500, with comparable declines for the Dow (3700) and Nasdaq (500). Why so pessimistic? Here are some reasons: First off, I believe that we are in a secular bear market unlike any seen in the last 70 years. Even the most experienced professionals will find that much of what they thought they knew is wrong and does not apply to the current environment. So-called valuation models have been rendered useless because interest rates are so grotesquely low, not because stocks have become attractive values. Beware of the universal reference to "operating earnings". They are artificially enhanced, deceptive, and do not reflect the true financial condition of any company. Second, Because the long-term trend is down, technical analysis rules now favor bearish resolutions of chart patterns over bullish resolutions by roughly 70%. Bullish setups are more likely to fail, and bearish setups are more likely to execute as expected. More often than not resistance will turn back rallies, and support will fail. The chart above gives us the best long-term view of the market. The most prominent features dominating the price pattern are (1) the declining tops line drawn from the 2000 top, and (2) the head and shoulders with the neckline drawn across the October 1998 and September 2001 lows. Both these barriers must be overcome before we can say the bear market is over. Also, the PMO must turn up on a month-end basis. I believe that this bear market should last until current extremely high valuations have been corrected, probably to an undervalued extreme of S&P 500 P/E of around 10. Historically such corrections have been accomplished by price declines, not an earnings recovery. Extreme caution is the name of the game right now. --Carl Swenlin

To: kodiak_bull who wrote (16405)	9/8/2002 6:41:31 PM
From: cnyndwllr	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 23153

Kodiak, Re: "And, yes, nobody gives a rat's ass about your opinion about politics on this thread. Not one person. Post elsewhere in cyberspace, and good luck achieving your audience. But not here." Actually, that's not exactly true unless I'm not a "person" or am not considered "on this thread." I sometimes like to hear your opinion, Ray's opinion and a lot of other opinions and I like to see them tested. True, it's not stock talk and it's not likely to make any money for anyone but it does liven up the day and may feed the mind with ideas. There's no doubt this thread is dominated by conservatives but it's not true that there is not, and has not been, a lot of political "off topic" discussion here, much of it initiated by you. I think an objective appraisal would reveal that it is sometimes not the subject matter but the viewpoint that is found repugnant. I don't endorse the personal attacks on either end but I enjoy many of Ray's posts; those that are on topic are often astute and well thought out, and those that are political are sometimes extreme but never simple. Like others, I am willing to accept the suggestion that I post elsewhere if it's made, but I'm not willing to accept the suggestion that I post certain views and refrain from others. What are the parameters and, by the way, is this a food fight? Ed