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Politics : Stockman Scott's Political Debate Porch -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Mannie who wrote (6760)9/19/2002 12:07:36 PM
From: Jim Willie CB  Respond to of 89467
 
I suspect those bondholders might see 10-15% loss by '04 /jw



To: Mannie who wrote (6760)9/19/2002 1:12:37 PM
From: surfbaron  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 89467
 
Scott: curious I haven't seen any postings by you on the brilliant Gov of our state, how he alone built a massive jobs machine and surplus and now Bush has torn it apart and created a $2B deficit and highest unemployment in nation?



To: Mannie who wrote (6760)9/19/2002 1:39:51 PM
From: Jim Willie CB  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 89467
 
Morgan gets slammed in cyberspace
(assembled by Bill Murphy of GATA)

[there is blood in the water... when the market realizes that the blood has a golden hue, all hell might break loose... this will take more time, more losses, more disclosure, like pulling teeth... golden, as in gold, not urine... altho I would like to deliver JPM mgmt team a long warm golden shower]

SAN FRANCISCO -- The virtual hyenas were a-
cacklin' Wednesday as they feverishly tore
into J.P Morgan following the finance giant's
earnings warning.

Bitten by credit losses and a steep decline
in trading revenue, J.P. Morgan Chase said
that third-quarter profits would come in
"well below" second-quarter results.

Over on Raging Bull, as some posters placed
their bets in "The J.P Morgan Death Pool,"
others, like Derbenski, painted a bleak
picture looking forward:

"When I look at JPM's current condition I see
'designed to fail' in the model. It was not
that long ago that Long-Term Capital
Management nearly melted down the world
financial markets with the derivative
concoction, and you look at JPM -- it's
LTCM's daddy in the derivative market. If the
derivatives don't kill them then it will be
cuts from a thousand knives from the likes of
Enron and the rest of the list of bad plays."

In Yahoo's brazen cyber-kingdom, GoldBugger2k
drew plenty of attention as he shuffled the
deck: "The cards have been dealt with three
showing and two hidden. When the two hidden
cards are revealed we will be on our way to
the greatest gold bull market ever.

"Card 1 was turned yesterday -- JPM's price
of $20/share or less. The next card to be
revealed soon is a spot price of gold of $340
plus. When this happens, and it will, JPM
will be forced to settle derivative positions
on gold at expiration. That, my dear friends,
will be the final nail in JPM's coffin.

"The days of making obscene profits shorting
gold and gold stocks will come to an end once
and for all. They had a good thing going for
them but as usual greed and avarice overtook
them. Ta-ta, JPM."

While gold fever wafted through the boards,
some posters went for the jugular. Take
EasyGoin, who was anything but:

"Anyone that would buy stock to profit in a
lying, cheating, and fraudulent organization
such as JPM is just about as UNAmerican as
you can get. Is it really fair to reward
those in banking for their greedy self-
serving mismanagement? Let them sink."

Flickenstein didn't shed any tears either:

"Pillaged by management in search of quick
bucks and fees. Nice bonuses now taken
directly out of market cap. Let her sink,
please. JPM is the ultimate gambling bank
that bet against the house. They thought they
WERE the house but quickly realized the game
is played only when players do not think the
odds are stacked against them. Now they are
left to play with themselves."

There's no saving this beached whale,
according to JKShaughnessy:

"JPM has come ashore and is in desperate need
of liquidity. Try as the Fed may to cover her
with wet towels, it looks like it will be a
long time before the tide returns. Too big to
fail? More like 'too big to save.'"

And finally, WalterReed didn't stop at merely
attacking J.P Morgan:

"The Fed will shotgun marriage this dead dog
to Citibank and create the world's ugliest
banking monstrosity. One half dead greedy dog
dragging a totally dead one down the road
while being whipped forward by Alan Greenspan
and the FOMC sled drivers."

Needless to say, there's still plenty of
negativity toward corporate America drifting
across the cyber-plains. Does J.P. Morgan
deserve all the bashing? Share your thoughts
in CBS MarketWatch.com's JPM Discussion.



To: Mannie who wrote (6760)9/19/2002 1:55:27 PM
From: Jim Willie CB  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 89467
 
commodity chart looking really strong -- CRB Cup & Handle

futures.tradingcharts.com

the target 227-228 has been reached
now probably some diddling around to form a rightside Handle

this morning some guest on CNBC from Axciom Mgmt made some really bright comments
he said among the field of stocks, 80% are looking bad, but 20% are looking good... and the goodlooking stocks are mostly in various commodity arenas like grains, soybean, and energy complex... he concluded that as bad as the S&P is looking recently, the CRB is looking great

Mark Haines reply: "hmmm"

the tide is turning, the word is getting out
performance is being recognized
/ jim



To: Mannie who wrote (6760)9/20/2002 5:30:01 AM
From: stockman_scott  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 89467
 
An Anti-War Movement of One

A conservative breaks ranks with both the right and left to oppose an Iraq attack.

BY PHILIP GOLD
Seattle Weekly
Published September 12 - 19, 2002

"Our national myth showed us that we were good, our technology made us strong, and our bureaucracy gave us standard operating procedures. It was not a winning combination."

So judged a wise historian, Loren Baritz, about how we wandered, open-eyed and fuzzy-minded, into Vietnam. Twenty years ago, when I first read his still-undiscovered masterpiece, Backfire, I cringed. So this is how we do things. This is us. It's going to happen again.

It's happening again. And of late, I've taken to constituting myself as an anti-war movement of one--a man of impeccable conservative credentials and long experience in the national-security field, a grumpy old Marine, who has grown infuriated with and appalled by both the conservative embrace of disaster and the enormity of the smallness of what passes for the anti-war movement today.

Yes, technology makes us strong, possessed of a military such as the world has never seen. But the myths now come to us less out of our own wishes and experiences than courtesy of an ugly cabal, half-Pentagon, half-media.

The Pentagon half: It's not so much el jefe, Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld (a good man and an excellent "SECDEF"), as some of the little jefitos running around. You want names? Deputy Defense Secretary Paul Wolfowitz and the denizens of the Defense Policy Board, an unpaid in-house think tank headed by Reaganite retread Richard Perle, a.k.a. "The Prince of Darkness," a moniker he earned in the 1980s for his love of confrontation for the sake of confrontation and of all things nuclear.

The media half? Again, not just the Big Guys, the Foxes (I like O'Reilly) and the MSNBCs (Nachman's cool). It's also a couple slick policy rags more notable for their influence than their circulation. The Weekly Standard and its allied P.R. machine, the Project for the New American Century, come to mind--the Bill Kristols, et al.

WHO ARE THESE people? Generically, they've been called "American Gaullists," after France's 20th-century all-purpose savior, Charles "France Without Greatness Isn't France" de Gaulle. But greatness without grace isn't greatness. The current D.C. version: America Without Greatness Isn't America. Let's go thump somebody. It'll be quick and easy and cheap and great, great fun and anyway, as a recent New American Century fax addressed to "opinion leaders" assures us, Baghdad won't be like Mogadishu because this time we have "the will to win."

Le Grand Charles, who knew from wars both world and colonial, would have scorned anything so stupid and so glib. These men aren't Gaullists. They're Prussians, a new aristocracy of aggression that combines 19th-century Prussian pigheadedness with a most un-Prussian inability to read a map or a ledger book, and a near total lack of military--let alone combat--experience. Ask these people to show you their wounds, and they'll probably wave a Washington Post editorial at you.

As for procedures--the procedures pertaining to going to war--the administration's strategy (or lack thereof) can only be described as bizarre. OK, so maybe they're practicing psychological warfare, or even their own brand of taqiya, an Arabic word connoting the right and duty of believers to lie to infidels. (Why not? The Islamic world seems to have adopted a Jewish communications strategy known as kvetching.) But when a president of the United States tells us that--not to worry--if he decides to go to war, he'll definitely ask the Congress for "support," and--again, not to worry--he'll "explain it" to the American people and we'll "understand," it's enough to make you join the anti-war movement.

What anti-war movement? When you look at what passes for "resistance" nowadays, you cringe in embarrassment that this is what's left of the left. Pompous. Arrogant. Self-righteous. Self-referent. Impotence chic at its finest. Punch up www.notinourname. net and read their "pledge of resistance." Or imagine my feelings--I almost said, "Feel my pain"--when I did a local church panel recently. A man in the audience asked if America would die like Rome, Nazi Germany, and the British Empire. One panelist agreed that, yes, America will die. The audience applauded.

And that's why I've come to be an anti-war movement of one, talking to anyone who will listen, not about how evil or how good we are, but about the world as it is and the vortex we're approaching.

On Sept. 10, 2001, the Beltway couldn't decide whether the defense budget should be $310 billion or $312 billion. The Weekly Standard crowd was demanding Rumsfeld's resignation for refusal to spend more money faster. Today, annual defense and homeland-security expenditures have swooshed past $400 billion. At this rate, we will spend more on defense in this decade than we did directly on all of World War II. So where's the world war?

All around us. Today, depending on how you count, there are between 60 and 100 international, transnational, civil, and regional armed conflicts under way. The world is at war. And we're getting ready for combat around the world. Since Sept. 11, we've been building foreign bases in central Asia, the Persian Gulf, and down the east coast of Africa. The Pentagon speaks of being there for "the long haul." We're concluding training and other agreements with dozens of countries and groups (note well: groups), and generally mucking about with a fervor not seen since the 1950s era of "Pactomania."

Alas, then as now and try as we might, we have few reliable or democratic allies. We have maybe half a dozen friends: Britain, Canada, Australia, Israel (sometimes), Turkey (a better friend to us than we've been to them), and, soon enough, Russia. Beyond that, we have relationships and hookups in ever-proliferating quantity and ever more complex and questionable quality.

SO WHAT'S THIS new struggle, these hundred conflicts already melding into yet another world war, about? Put simply: Maybe half the countries on this planet--and many of the poorest and most volatile--have borders that don't make sense politically, militarily, ethnically, culturally, economically, or ecologically. Before the Soviet collapse, borders were considered sacrosanct, virtually immutable, the sine qua non of national sovereignty. Now sovereignty is breaking down and busting up all over, and borders grow ever more unavailing and unreal. No amount of Western-style "nation building" can hold together nations that never should have been nations in the first place and shouldn't be now. And no amount of American muscle can police a world destined for a century of conflict over resources, religions, identities, and whatever else people care to massacre each other about.

Throughout the Cold War, we failed at Third World nation building, failures we could elide courtesy of local thugs and kleptocrats. During a decade that historians may someday call "The Wasted '90s," we blew it in Haiti, Somalia, and, to some extent, in the Balkans.

We're getting our first hard lesson in Afghanistan, whose continued existence as a collection of feuding tribes and warlords isn't worth the bones of an Arkansas grenadier. If we go into Iraq, if we get our "regime change" and then try to build them a country, the lesson will be harsher still. And as we fail, the chaos--and our involvement and implication in that chaos--will spread. It will spread through the Islamic world. It will spread through Africa. And the consequences and the violence will not be confined to those unhappy lands. Not to mention the fact that, from the jihadist point of view--they who recognize no legitimate borders save those of the Umma, the Islamic world under their brand of Islamic law--destabilization is exactly the opportunity they want.

So what's Iraq about? In the end, it's not about that nasty man or the nasty things he's collecting. It's about what the policy wonks call "destabilization." It's about taking the next step into a regional and a global chaos that could wreck this planet.

So what do we do when the government's careening toward disaster, the anti-war movement's comatose, and the media keep us on perpetual spin? For starters, we dare to risk unilateral rationality. Which tells us that we've yet to begin to develop an effective strategy for coping with terrorism and weapons of mass destruction, let alone the imminent fracturing of dozens of nations.

Iraq?

Not now.

_________________________________________________________
Philip Gold served as an intelligence officer in the U.S. Marine Corps before joining the faculty of Georgetown University in 1982. Since 1992, he has served as a senior fellow at Seattle's Discovery Institute, specializing in national security. His latest book, Against All Terrors: The People's Next Defense, is available online at www.discovery.org.

seattleweekly.com