Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Moderated Thread - please read rules before posting -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: The Reaper who wrote (26984)	9/22/2002 11:36:56 AM
From: Jon Koplik	Respond to of 196562

I guess it is more difficult to do math correctly than it is to spell his name correctly. Jon.

To: The Reaper who wrote (26984)	9/22/2002 12:39:16 PM
From: slacker711	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 196562

does anyone know what this goof is trying to say? I'm not stupid but I have yet to make sense out of this comment. Another analyst worrying about the 1x inventory situation. Basically, they are all getting their subscriber numbers from Q's 3G website. 3gtoday.com Since Qualcomm had shipped 31 million 1x chipsets by the end of the second quarter and there are only 13.4 million reported subscribers they assume that 17.6 million chipsets are rotting in inventory. Of course, they fail to take into account the caveat that Qualcomm puts onto that graph.... * Seven operators have reported 3G CDMA subscriber totals for the end of June 2002. One of these operators have updated their 3G CDMA subscriber totals for July 2002 and four have updated their August numbers. 11 operators have yet to report 3G CDMA subscribers. As far as I can tell, these numbers dont include any of the 1x voice only handsets that have been sold by PCS and Verizon. They also dont include any Korean subscribers who have bought more than 1x handset (probably not a small number considering how often some Korean subs upgrade their handsets). At a minimum, they probably had sold a couple million more 1x handsets than has been reported by that site. The rest are somewhere in the supply chain....Motorola, for one, reported the fact that they have built a substantial amount of 1x handsets in preparation for their launch. I cant tell for sure that the analysts are wrong since it is tough to tell exactly how many handsets should be in the supply chain. However, it would be nice if they started from the right number....the 13.4 million number is clearly wrong. Slacker

To: The Reaper who wrote (26984)	9/23/2002 9:58:56 AM
From: Michael Allard	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 196562

Sprint PCS - If I read todays press release properly, they have expect gross adds to be 1.7 Million for the quarter, but net adds to be negative. According to BS's math, this is over 1.7 Million handsets in inventory! Clearly, (and so shockingly!!) the Analysts do not understand the unique QCOM business model. Maybe someday... Back to the Sprint release and Analysts not understanding the impact to QCOM's models, I speculated back on June 15th (http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=17607628) that analysts were missing the impact of the 300K net adds to Sprint PCS. Instead of grasping for reasons that QCOM must be wrong (even though there is a large trail of dozens of quarters of QCOM being right), they should work on what impact accelerated chipset shipments will have on QCOM' profits. Remember that they basically profit twice, once from the chipset sale, then again on the royalty stream. If China hits their 7 Million sub target by 12/31/02 (which they believe they will), then they will have to add 3-4 Million subs in Q4. So.... how many can we expect in Q1-03? Q2-03, etc,,, China could and should see 15-20 Million subs next year (based on them hitting the 7 Million by year end). World wide Churn alone (@2%) would represent 25 Million additional handsets on top of pure subscriber growth, and on top of replacement handsets. And then, towards the end of 2003, will we be seeing W-CDMA chipset shipments??? IF this is how QCOM's model plays out during a difficult world economy and in the face of the worst telecommunications collapse in history, how do you expect them to perform when things get better?