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To: ajtj99 who wrote (55087)	10/1/2002 7:29:51 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 209892

Max Pain analysis - A look ahead An interesting rally today. Let's see why. Look at QQQ P/C ratio strike 20 20K calls vs 65K puts strike 21 21K calls vs 89K puts Strike 22 84K calls vs 93K puts Strike 23 79K calls vs 62K puts Strike 24 141K calls vs 32K puts Short at will if this ramp gets to QQQ 24. That is IF Max Pain does not rise on this ramp. 24 nonetheless will be formidable resistance for this month. 23 is stiff resistance as well, but expect the F*Heads to jam this as much as possible before the tank. If we get above 24 and stay there, delta hedging long might occur and shorts better watch out. Maximum Pain is 22-23 This could be a one day wonder. IF we rally beyond this point AND idiots pile into calls, the rally is OVER big time (OR delta hedging occurs an there is an enormous blast off). Max Pain normally rules out both extremes which suggests chop for two weeks into expiry on the 18th. The crooks did what needed to be done today, by destroying puts. Now if shorts pile on we rally furher, if longs pile on with calls we sink. It's as simple (or crooked) as that, most likely. M

To: ajtj99 who wrote (55087)	10/1/2002 9:28:02 PM
From: The Freep	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 209892

AJ -- I wasn't really talking about the BTK in specific, though if I were, I'd point out that it didn't just go from 324 to 333. Rather it went from 307 (a hair under) yesterday to 333 today. A decent move, for sure, but I agree no "break out the BTK calls" move, as there's more resistance up ahead. So far, no index broke what I'd consider terribly critical resistance, thus ruining near or mid-term bearish ideas (which could come back into play with news, too. It was not long ago that we had another Iraq related rally that quickly petered out when the US said "uh, no dice folks."). That said, there's a tremendous bearish complacency I've seen on the boards that simply ignores any "up" scenarios. "It can't happen here and now" is the refrain. But we all know it can. As for tomorrow. . . we've seen the DELL spike before. It might last all day or more for all I know. But while Dell's news was pretty good for Dell, it's not clear if it's really that good for anyone else: they're taking market share in a shrinking business and have one billion in cost savings helping their bottom line. We might just gap and sputter out, and it wouldn't surprise me. That said, I'm willing to cut more puts loose if the prices dictate. That's all I meant. the freep