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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly: Drilling II -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: isopatch who wrote (19748)	10/3/2002 2:15:05 AM
From: nspolar	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 36161

iso, and here I thought you weren't going to answer! Good show. As I was reading I also thought you might have left out a key point. But then: [Sharply reduced consumer spending yet to even begin.] You didn't really (miss it). Mauldin also made the point. Not to go back and look but I believe it was something like - What if consumers suddenly decide to save 5% more? ... ya well what if? It usually happens during these cycles. The drop in consumer spending that will surely come will be for a least a couple of reasons. One of course is financial stress, but the other is they will decide it is time to spend less and save more. A little recent anecdotal sampling around the office indicates to me the save more attitude is very close, if not upon us. According to some less than stellar sources Greenie hasn't been that accomadative of late, but I don't follow it every day. If he hasn't why? The only thing that makes sense to me is they know the end result, and they want the market to drop further here, so the plunge that will surely come later will be less severe, from a pure number perspective.

To: isopatch who wrote (19748)	10/3/2002 6:19:18 AM
From: jimsioi	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 36161

"Fundamentals worth considering" - fine post Isopatch. Thanks for the repeat of necessary warnings. Probably a good time to keep the sound off on CNBC as they exhort their listeners to believe each rally on the way to lower levels.

To: isopatch who wrote (19748)	10/3/2002 6:59:19 AM
From: longdong_63	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 36161

iso...very nice! Loved it! One question though...if all your assets are at a broker and the broker fails, SIPC would cover up to 500,000 if your securities are at the broker? If your assets are at the transfer agent via electronic transfer (i.e. 1000 shares CEF), would your broker failure still be a concern since you can contact the transfer agent to prove ownership of those shares? Dunno...just asking. I own very little physical but want more.

To: isopatch who wrote (19748)	10/3/2002 9:36:26 AM
From: Roebear	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 36161

isopatch,(Weather) "Fundamentals worth considering..." Excellent post, worth printing out and hanging on the wall. Lili confirms part of Winter Forecast: Message 18041190 As I believe I mentioned to you via PM some while ago, one thing I was waiting for was drought conditions in east to be moderated by a hurricane or remnants thereof. This is coming to pass and could come to pass again in the next few weeks. **** So we AGAIN have a hurricane delivering moisture into the US, relieving the drought in the East as I suspected in the above post. Might not be over yet either, see below... Have been dodging hurricanes and their remnants, my vacation has become somewhat complex and have been giving my boss fits changing my days off three times in rapid order. AND, Will be possibly dodging another hurricane as KYLE, that tropical storm that's been doing loops south of Bermuda for what seems like an eon, is showing indications of making a beeline for SC/NC and possibly strengthening to Hurricane status on it's way. Not a certainty, but since I'll be in the vicinity, that ups the odds quite a bit, ggg. BTW, if this develops this way, it could run up the East coast. I don't do hurricane tracks or details, only on occasion in a general sense do I do hurricane work, as they impact my winter forecast research, the above possible track is from Joe Bastardi accuweather, who's been bang on this hurricane season. Take care, I'm just here for a bit and will be on the road again soon, Roebear

To: isopatch who wrote (19748)	10/3/2002 10:14:40 AM
From: churchy6	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 36161

Isopatch or anyone with insights I find the possibility of failed brokerages/failed SIPC terrifying but don't feel that I truly understand the ramnifications. Let's imagine my brokerage and the SIPC fail. Are just my cash balances at risk or are my stock holdings at risk as well? Ultimately, who owns my stocks, me or the brokerage? Thanks in advance for any responses

To: isopatch who wrote (19748)	10/3/2002 12:36:28 PM
From: No Mo Mo	Respond to of 36161

To Isopatch or thread: I understand the wisdom of holding physical gold. It's not exactly the most fungible or liquid of assets, though. I know of only a few places to buy gold currently. When the chips are really down, might not those few outlets squeeze the price paid to the small seller? Or, if deflationary collapse happens, how would one use gold as currency? TIA

To: isopatch who wrote (19748)	10/3/2002 1:47:57 PM
From: Sharp_End_Of_Drill	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 36161

Isopatch, sounds like you've been reading Prechter. Those scenarios are both possible and credible, but the impacts are too devastating. I believe our government fully understands that, and will fight by any and all methods, resulting in a tug-o-war eventually resolving onto the side of inflation. I see inflation as the only realistic way out from under our mountain of debt, so that's my vote. If what you write comes to pass indeed only cash, gold, and guns will matter. Sharp

To: isopatch who wrote (19748)	10/11/2002 8:56:56 AM
From: Roebear	Respond to of 36161

isopatch, Yup, sho' nuff looks like deflation to me: The PPI, measuring prices paid to the nation's factories, farms and refineries, has fallen 1.9 percent over the past 12 months. The core PPI has dropped a record 0.4 percent during the same period. biz.yahoo.com [EDIT, what the heck would the PPI look like if energy prices had also fallen in last 12 months??] This Deflation is a new creature to the vast majority of market players today. Like the blind men trying to describe the (Deflation) elephant they are now touching, the conclusions of most are both greatly varied and greatly off base. Catching up on thread reading here before I'm on the road again, so apologies for being a bit belated... Thanks for a great post and a great call on deflation now a year (?) old, you were way ahead of the crowd on that call! Best Regards, Roebear

To: isopatch who wrote (19748)	10/11/2002 11:19:06 AM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 36161

Iso.... BRAVO ~ great post. ...you have to step out of the dugout for a tip of the cap on that one my friend ! re: ["In fact, quite the contrary was true. In 1932 Hoover's Secretary of the Treasury reportedly warned his boss that so much gold was being demanded from the U.S. Treasury by U.S. citizens and from people abroad in exchange for paper dollars that the U.S. Treasury would soon lose all of its gold. That's why on January 31, 1934, Roosevelt forced American citizens to give up their gold or face a $10,000 fine and 10 years in jail. And as an aside, I think it is interesting to note that one day after the gold was stolen by the government from the American people, Roosevelt increased the price from $20.67 to $35. And get this! With the 69% revaluation of gold from $20.67 to $35, the government booked a $2 billion profit which it socked away in THE EXCAHNGE STABALIZATION FUND which according to GATA to this day is being used to manipulate the gold price. But the point I am trying to make is that in the midst of the deflation, people were trashing paper money and demanding gold. Why? Because they KNEW, just as Japanese people today know that their money would not be safe in the bank. They instinctively opted for gold - an asset money rather than paper money which is a liability money."] Absolutely a great point on SIPIC...do the research on them & you'll realize this is a ticking time bomb. Another great point on NOT keeping all one's assets in institutions, let alone paper. It's going to be a tough sell in this age of technology & financial sophistication to convey the value & efficacy of holding physical gold & silver...visions of Suit & Tied White Collar Business People (Doctor's, Lawyers, Teachers, Business owners etc) banging on the doors of the Banks of Argentina, or Brazil come to mind. ...any thoughts that a Global Financial Rogue Wave Event is perhaps going to pave the way for new a Global Currency ? It's going to be an interesting chapter in history unfold shortly... America has always conveniently seemed to find a War driven-Economy when it needs one. The $64 question is whether the Fed starts inflating early enough and fast enough and if there's enough green ink and paper to get the job done ...