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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly: Drilling II -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: DataBits who wrote (20279)	10/15/2002 12:09:13 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 36161

Rally ? ...the entire point of the "rally" issue is being lost. Does the market move up from it's interim low's at some point in time ? Of course... if you want to call these mathematical differences between interim lows to interim highs in a still downward channel (key point & concept there) a "Rally"... then so be it...but, I think it's nothing more than a normally occuring DCB within a still intact strong downward trend. A true "rally" imho; must encompass a trend reversal... and we "aint" seen that yet ~ If we want to play a game of semantic's; a Dead Cat Bounce is just that... and a Rally is a Rally... and this isn't one yet imho. The DOW is still clearly in a downward channel. At the least; if you draw downward channel lines from the DOW's recent downward trending highs & low's... the DOW must take out approx 8750ish to break out of this channel and approx 9250 to take out the prior resistance high. If 8750 is taken out... I wouldn't quibble about anyone calling this a "rally". But, I wouldn't read the DOW for being in anything other than a continued downward BEAR channel if 9250 isn't taken out... so keep the Pom-Pom's in cold storage untill 9250 falls (vbg). From 8750 to 9250 my "heavy" shorts get re-applied. The present range of Dow 7500 to 8750 imho is not high reward/low-moderate risk SHORT territory (and that's all I'm interested in playing), but 8750 thru 9250 most certainly is... unless we see something fundamental dramatically change in earnings, cap ex spending, the end of the debt collapse, Dollar dramatically strengthening etc... I'll just set back and keep shorting the upper end of these DCB moves - take my profits and keep adding/trading GOLD stocks on their pullbacks like we just saw in the last few days. Exhaustion is the next stage of this Bear... capitulation hasn't occured yet... I think we need the mid DOW 6,000's & S&P 650ish broached for that to occur... and imho; when, not if... that's where we're headed...and you can add another 1000 DOW points & 100 S&P points on the downside for a "severe" Rogue Wave Event... ie: bio/nuke event, or Derivatives Collapse taking down a major Bank - ie: JPM. [ interesting post on a couple of the major German Banks teetering on the abyss... in fact being insolvent as we speak. Remember our Deutsche-freinds have been heavy lenders of Gold as well... food for thought.] This DCB is just interim noise... - merely adjust your squelch meters accordingly (vbg). ...just my "bits"