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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly: Drilling II -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: terry richardson who wrote (20943)11/3/2002 7:15:26 PM
From: terry richardson  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 36161
 
An interesting piece from lemetropolecafe.com today

lemetropolecafe.com

”Something to keep an eye on:

Bill,
I just had word from my parents who own GG shares that their broker called them up and said that they had received an offer from one of their client to purchase their shares in GG!!!!! They of course declined.
Bill, if this is not an isolated case but widespread this would explain why share volumes and prices have been anaemic...because trades are being made and accumulated OFF MARKET. It also suggests someone knows what is coming and soon.
I have never heard of being solicited to sell shares in my portfolio before. This is usually only for people that own a large percentage of a company and someone is trying to make a take-over.


What do think of that?

Cheers
Adrian”



To: terry richardson who wrote (20943)11/8/2002 6:51:53 PM
From: terry richardson  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 36161
 
Book to Bill ratio taking a dive does not look great going
forward.

Billings Bookings
(Three-month avg.) (Three-month avg.) Book-to-Bill)
April 2002 814.6 995.6 1.22
May 2002 869.6 1,105.2 1.27
June 2002 927.1 1171.3 1.26
July 2002 969.1 1181.9 1.22
August 2002 (final) 994.8 1,016.8 1.02
Sept. 2002 (prelim.)984.7 822.6 0.84

No doubt it will be revised, but for bookings 3 month
average to dive by 19% the September figures have got to be
pretty awful.

semi.org!OpenDocument



To: terry richardson who wrote (20943)12/2/2003 11:17:21 PM
From: terry richardson  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 36161
 
Something to ponder overnight... for those more knowledgeable than I on these matters:

First:

I read somewhere today that if the SA Rand appreciates against the US$ much more that some of the SA mines may have to shut down. I'd post the reference if I could find it again but I think we all understand the problem.

Now:

Via: LeMetropoleCafe from the transcript of Barrick CFO, Jamie Sokalsky interview with Maria Bartoromo on CNBC today... Tuesday:

lemetropolecafe.com

"........Sokalsky said they are in no hurry to cover their hedges. Brilliant, Jamie. Let other hedgers cover their forward sales first. Let THE STALKER ramp up gold another $25 before you cover. I cannot recall another gold producer announce coming buybacks before they have done them. Makes no sense. Why not take a chunk of your cash on hand (over $2 billion) and cover a significnt part of your hedged position and then announce it to the investment world? Something is VERY wrong here...."

"...Well, we’ve got the highest gold reserves in the world at 87million ounces. In fact, four out of every five of our ounces are unhedged. However, in this environment, we recognize the fact that there is a discount ascribed to the hedge position and we want to change that. We want to increase the share price by eliminating the hedge position..."

"...Well, what we feel we’ve done is extended our commitment to reducing our gold hedge position. We’ve been reducing our gold hedge position quite substantially over the last 18 months by about a third from 24 million ounces down to 16 million ounces. And now, we’ve further extended that to say that we’re adopting a no hedge policy, with a further goal of reducing our hedge policy prudently over time to zero...."


Now...

With gold currently at $403/oz. Barricks Proven/Probable reserves per share = 0.16 oz./sh. or $64.63/share while Durban Deep's (DROOY) Proven/Probable reserves/share = 0.086 oz./share. or $34.54/share. But while Barrick sells for $22.44 (last trade today) or about one third of its reserves value DROOY is selling for $2.77 or one twelfth its reserves value, it also has another 0.347 oz./sh. in measured/indicated and infered reserves (or $140/share) but lets leave that aside for the moment.

DROOY has a market cap of $0.56B Therefore... and this is the question... would it make sense for Barrick to use its cash to buy DROOY outright (at a premium to its current list price... naturally... yes I have a few shares) and then assign its hedges to DROOY. With the high SA Rand which it pays its overheads with and the difficulty in making money selling its gold at today's sinking US dollar this would keep the mine going in "difficult" SA times.

DROOY, which is unhedged, has a production of around 1 million ounces/year which could probably be stepped up so that if acquired it could deliver into Barricks hedge positions (16 million ounces) over the next ten years leaving the remainder of Barricks production to be sold at market prices. If carried out it should immediately double Barricks stock price to bring it into line with the unhedged miners I would think.

It would seem to my mind to be an answer for both companies.

I know that you will immediately say "but what about the "Black Empowerment Movement" in SA. But with Barrick's alleged close association with various US Gvt. institutions (FED and CIA allegedly) in the past... and present probably. It shouldn't be too difficult to steer the SA political ship of state onto the required course I would think. Hell they dragged us (UK) into a war with less sound logic.

By way of disclosure... I have DROOY but no Barrick... yet.

Now I know someone will point out what I've missed, or the complete and utter absurdity of the idea... but in the meantime I'm going to bask in the idea with my Montecristo and Black Lable.

Regards to all...

T.

p.s. would someone please send this to Barrick if they think it's worth it :-)

p.p.s. another quote from the same Le Metropole cafe piece:

"JS... I think this is a sustainable gold rally. This is a weak US Dollar reflationary story and we feel that we’re still in a protracted US Dollar bear market. So, we feel that this rally still has some room to go and we’re poised to benefit significantly from it.

MB: How much higher realistically?

JS: Well, it’s hard to say. But, it certainly can continue to grow throughout the four hundreds. As you mentioned, we’re at almost eight-year highs and we think we can continue to move up. We’ve seen higher levels in the past."


And from Barrick no less....