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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly: Drilling II -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (21204)	11/3/2002 10:14:53 AM
From: Sharp_End_Of_Drill	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 36161

Jim, the answer to your questions is inflation. When swamped with debt you can do the following: default - many companies and individuals are doing that now and it will accelerate. Devalue - the more likely scenario on the international scene. Inflate - that is the only workable answer I see to our dilemma. Whether or not we see deflation on a broad scale first remains to be seen. I have no doubt we will see it in a number of sectors, but I doubt we'll see truly broad scale. As you correctly point out the risks of a complete melt down are too high in that situation - it rarely if ever pays to bet on armageddon. The things you describe will lead to a situation where the only things that will matter are guns, food, and water. Good luck to 'ya if you want to bet on an outcome with probably less than 5% chance of happening. Comparing our course to the Japanese doesn't get it with me either. Have you ever worked closely with a group of Japanese? I have, and can report the differences are large. They can be very wrong, and you can prove it to them beyond a doubt, but they won't change direction for a myriad of cultural & face saving reasons. Western civilizations are quite different. Nobody likes to be wrong, but as I said when you knock us down we bounce back stronger - we will eventually change course and do the right things. Japanese will follow a course to complete failure. Your gloom & doom makes for good entertainment value, but the trap as I see it is you won't know when to become bullish. That time will come when we are swamped with debt, all looks bleak, and it seems we are right on the cliff. At that point you will be more bearish than ever - at exactly the moment you should change. Sharp

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (21204)	11/4/2002 4:16:26 AM
From: c.hinton	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 36161

We are not Weimar; and its not the end of the world.germany after wwi was a defeated,decapitated corpse,the peace treaty imposed on it was designed to keep germany down,french occupation of the rhur industrial zone lead to a stike by german workers with the approval of the gov. that then printed money to pay striking workers.A fiat currency depends largely on gross domestic production to give it value.german gd production just about halted. The dollar could loose lots of value,but unless the US shut down it would not become valueless. America owes money largely in its own currency ,which it can devalue as needed. Dollars wont disapear, because a sold security will be changed into another currency electronicly when it is repatriated,anyway they would'nt want dollars would they? America is the superpower.Nobody is going to war with us over a financial crises.Nor are the japanese and chinese going to come over and repossess our SUV's, and stereos.They just will not loan us money without high rates to compencate for the risk they take on. The hard part is coming to grips with our own shattered dreams and expectations,business will reorganise,people will loose jobs or earn less and spend less,but maybe they will be the wiser for it. The gov hires a third of the US workforse and has the power to initiate work programs to underwrite more jobs.It has programs already in place for alleviating the unemployment ,starvation and homelessness that plagued depression years. Russel IMHO really has missed the boat in his comparison.