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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Terry Whitman who wrote (40942)	11/18/2002 1:43:23 PM
From: Lucretius	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 52237

let's rock... i'm long

To: Terry Whitman who wrote (40942)	11/18/2002 1:49:13 PM
From: Henry J Costanzo	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 52237

<<so take it FWIW>> Sounds like IW quite a bit........

To: Terry Whitman who wrote (40942)	11/18/2002 3:31:54 PM
From: SpecialK	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52237

Terry, 1. Looking at values from 94-2002 is not a large enough sampling. To make conclusions on rallies/ cycles length and strength based on this period is an injustice to common sense. You know the setup during a bear market and a bull market. The timeframe selected can help you conclude what you may want to, but not what is accurate, imo. I would like to understand how you do a Long term (8 year)valuation study in a morning. Please take this criticism constructively. My purpose is to understand your conclusions, it is not clear to me how you get them. You may be right. Ketan >>>Based on SPX valuation data over the period 1994-2002: 1) The bottom is in. We have met the minimum reversal #s. 2) We had a LT buy signal on 10/18. 3) Past buy signals have returned 24% (avg. buy to sell signal), and 51% trough to peak. 4) Past bullish cycles lasted 18 months on avg. So 17 more months to go on avg. 5) Past returns at 4 wks past buy signal were 4%. Current return fm 10/18 is 4.6%. 6) Past valuation cycles suggest a minimum increase of 50% in valuation from here to cycle peak.