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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Terry Whitman who wrote (41164)	11/22/2002 9:24:38 AM
From: Paul Shread	Respond to of 52237

What a hoot: phillymag.com

To: Terry Whitman who wrote (41164)	11/22/2002 9:26:19 AM
From: AugustWest	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 52237

>This is a once in 72-year bear. Any comparisons need to come from the last example or the current one, IMO< That's a reasonable statement. So, what happened 3 years after the crazy 1929 secular bull market high?? stockcharts.com Just the best buying opportunity of the century. >>>> With that notion, wouldn't it also hold true than that we could go to the 1980 lows before our new bull market? I mean the dow went back to 1900 levels from '29 before starting over again. Just throwing out a thought. I doubt the Dow will go to 800/1000. But even if we go back to 1990 levels, well, I doubt we'll see that either. P.S> The Dow also lost like 70% of its value during those few years post 29. Of course one might argue that the only bubble needed bursting wat the NAZ. I dunno, I'm just learning as we bump along.

To: Terry Whitman who wrote (41164)	11/22/2002 10:14:52 AM
From: ajtj99	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 52237

Terry, I suggest you do some research on how bear markets end. Make sure you take note of the number of 90% down days required to end a bear market.

To: Terry Whitman who wrote (41164)	11/22/2002 12:49:42 PM
From: Perspective	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 52237

What about valuations? Dow PE, PB, PS are all nuts. What about sentiment? Wall Street is still crazy about equities. This bear needs years of "The Death of Equities" type mentality. What about the groups doing the buying? Insiders are always buyers well before the bottom - they've only just begun, and appear to be reversing course on this rally. Corporate cash takeovers pick up around bottoms. Where are they? I agree that cycles are favorable here, that's why I'm treading so lightly. However, of the things that really matter in ending secular bears, it appears the valuation metrics are key, and they are the ones still in nosebleed territory. We've had a few bad days for Dow stocks like MMM, PG, JNJ, and nothing more. They need to have a few really bad years before this is over and done. We've got a few necessary conditions for a bottom, but not any that are sufficient. Maybe enough for a short cyclical bull, maybe, but I have serious doubts about even that limited notion. This bottom just wasn't durable enough to last very long. I said that about 9/11/01, and we hit fresh lows nine months later. That rally had the benefit of extraordinary liquidity to kick it - I don't see the similar liquidity forces at work now. BC