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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly: Drilling II -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (24132)	12/23/2002 3:55:20 PM
From: nspolar	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 36161

George, bonds are an enigma to me. I can't read them very well here. Neely made some comments on recent EW charts, fwiw. aegeancapital.com I don't see a big sell out however, not yet so I'm not totally in Neely's camp. Right now I feel we are probably going down deeper in the economic hole before we start back out. Even though The Fed is trying to pump this thing up, and maintains it has lots more ammo, maybe they have a hard time hitting the target. Or maybe they do hit but it does no good. Business as we know it is still in contraction mode, and we haven't had the double dip yet. Really haven't had much of a first dip either. IMHO.

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (24132)	12/23/2002 4:52:25 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 36161

two big threats to the US Trez market upcoming 1. return of some (not big) price inflation 2. rising supply of Trez issuances neither is given much credence these days but that only confirms their reality CRB is already giving off alarm signals gold is also, which offers backdoor imported inflation Asian imports will rise again in price locally, or else crimp their profit margins back home there is no alternative at the same time, further dollar declines and Trez yield rises will seriously hurt Asian bank systems rising federal deficits will undermine Trez securities I have heard of demand demand demand like a drone and almost a total absence of supply issues last I checked, "SUPPLY & DEMAND" had two components just when debt defaults contine to rise unabated, US Trez will have a hard time in attracting continued foreign investment the reasons are numerous, and I wont attempt a comprehensive list federal deficits are rising, and I expect a $1 Trillion deficit before this recession ends that figures includes the Printing Press Monetization Machine in my golden 25 reasons article, I said that capital seeking safety will collide with debt default risk, creating a rocky bottom in Trez yields this is imminent I disagree with Mauldin about lower TENS yields coming a falling dollar countermands such a claim I am solidly with Pimco's Gross on this issue further undermining the credit markets will be the falling dollar and its savage Vicious Circle effects bond yields will rise from dollar declines dollar declines will continue while yields are competitively low this will get ugly as long as investors are totally ignorant of economic history, they will continue to get their heads and their nuts separated from their sheeplike bodies in 1930 the Gold Standard died during the KWinter now we have a Dollar Standard underpinned by $6200 billion in federal debt if this Dollar Monetary Standard survives, I will eat a mile of GreenMan's shit / jim p.s. how do we know that GreenMan isnt the Devil Incarnate?