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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Carragher who wrote (64787)	1/7/2003 11:10:48 AM
From: FaultLine	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

Let's go back to the 60's.. I believe it was then the assumption we would run out of oil by the year 2000 Back then I heard a discussion on PBS wherein an oil company geologist, working with a UN geology and oil resources group, flatly stated that at the just concluded UN conference they agreeded there were about 150 years worth of proven reserves (I guess at current consumption rates but I do not recall that aspect). I've never heard that claim again from anyone, but I've never forgotten it either and have always factored that statement into all such later projection claims... --fl

To: John Carragher who wrote (64787)	1/8/2003 10:48:34 AM
From: Noel de Leon	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

My point is that oil production will peak somewhere in the next 6-10 years. This will then cause severe dislocations in those countries which are heavily oil dependant. When oil runs out is another question.

To: John Carragher who wrote (64787)	1/8/2003 10:53:31 AM
From: Noel de Leon	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 281500

Perhaps you could generate data to show that there has been an increase in oil production over the past 10 years which when combined with the number of new oil fields which will come on line in the next 10 years can compensate for the loss of oil fields and increased demand. If such an analysis exists then it would contribute greatly to removing many myths about the oil problem.