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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Moderated Thread - please read rules before posting -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Don Mosher who wrote (32016)	2/4/2003 11:03:14 AM
From: foundation	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 197253

Don, regarding your comment: "I believe the Chinese will postpone their decisions to produce maximum power from their negotiating position as King-maker, searching primarily for technology transfer of knowledge and build-up of forces within Chinese or Asian markets. Qualcomm shares and educates; Europe does not. Ultimately, they will rely, like the U.S., on capitalistic competition to winnow the 3G wheat. They are patient and can wait until a winner becomes apparent, if they continue to let China Telecom and its southern branch build out CDMA WLL. Long-term, which is how the Chinese think, they are positioning for 4G and after. ========== I have a problem with your perspective. There have been stories in the news since last September regarding cdma450 and China, Telecom and Netcom, including: Message 18037156 Message 18041980 Message 18043138 Message 18051539 Message 18061807 Message 18066378 Recent statements by China vendor TCL Mobile and others have been more substantive: Message 18344415 Message 18364768 Message 18500137 Message 18505576 Then there are recent reports of Telecom trialing 3G cdma2000 (meaning, in China, evdo): Message 18493070 Message 18493201 Message 18498227 Telecom's and Netcom's rational reasoning for cdma450 PHS over their present Japanese TDMA version is that they begin their 3G infrastructure build under another name. If Telecom and Netcom are truly moving to cdma450 for WiLL services - if MII has agreed to allow them to do so - their 3G selection is also sealed. MII will have postponed NOTHING. Little negotiating leverage would then remain, save leverage regarding Mobile, who would face a whole new world of hurt. And very likely, Mobile would demand and receive proportional control over its own fate. In my view, Telecom and Netcom are burrs under MII's saddle that MII cannot ignore. They're driving events - likely faster than MII would prefer. Telecom and Netcom will have a dramatic effect on Mobile's decisions as well... as Mobile, while losing money on GPRS services and witnessing the wCDMA recession in Europe, ponders odd man out status in China. In my view, if we receive confirmation of Telecom and Netcom and cdma450, the game's already over.

To: Don Mosher who wrote (32016)	2/4/2003 11:25:30 AM
From: Jim Mullens	Respond to of 197253

Hi Don- Thanks for responding to Propitious’ post and giving us some insight into your background and objectives in such a thoughtful manner. Regarding your thoughts in respect to UTMS in Europe, this statement especially caught my attention- >>>>> “(Qualcomm’s) The cross-licenses are limited specifically to multimode phones to allay fears that they might invade the GSM handset market. Perhaps their rivals did not foresee Q’s mastery of multimode technology at the level of tight integration in a single chipset, in contrast to placing multiple modems within a handset, which threaten the GSM and UMTS markets more indirectly. <<<< I had not made that observation before (The cross-licenses are limited specifically to multimode phones). However, the fact that the Qualcomm’s cross-license terms required a recurring royalty from most licensees to Qualcomm but not from Qualcomm to their licensees signifies to me the strength of Qualcomm patent position and bargaining power. I believe Texas Instruments is the only exception to this rule. I am not so sure that Qualcomm’s rivals underestimated “Q’s mastery of multimode technology", rather perhaps it was Qualcomm’s bargain power thru the strength of its patents that will allow Qualcomm to “threaten the GSM and UMTS markets more indirectly” by supplying the MSM6300 (GSM/GPRS-CDMA2000 1X) chipset equipped handsets to GSM carriers. I believe this will be a major revenue source for Qualcomm. I don’t believe many (certainly none in the “analyst” community) recognize that Qualcomm is no longer a “niche” player in just the CDMA market, but will soon be able to provide chipsets to virtually every carrier in the world. Chart #21 (2003 Key Qualcomm Growth Drivers) in Tony Thornley’s London Day Presentation lists the “New Market – GSM Carriers” and the MSM6300. Further, both Dr. I. J. and Tony have recently repeatedly spoken of the MSM6300 chipset for GSM carriers. In Tony’s recent Bloomberg interview he stated that “Over time they should be a significant contributor to revenue as their incremental cost is not high.” This also suggests to me that Qualcomm will price the MSM6300 so as to be competitive with traditional GSM/GPRS handsets. The GSM handset market is huge with 787 million subs thru Dec ’02 and roughly 75% of annual mobile handset sales of 425 million (320 million), approximately 60% of which are replacements (190 million). The MSM6300 also affords the GSM carriers the opportunity to provide roaming to both GSM/GPRS and CDMA networks and the ability to seed their customers with handsets for use on future GSM networks upgraded to GSM1x. The MSM6300 may not be a significant Qualcomm revenue contributor in 2003, but “overtime” as Tony stated “it should be significant”. I wonder when the ”analyst” community will fold this into their models and when the financial media will broadly report such? Keeps your posts coming, I'm counting on at least one per day and reserving about a hour each day for reading and thinking about each (gg). Jim