Bad science in the early days of nature/nurture. Looks like the Republicans could end up with a "Filibuster Proof" Senate next year. And it looks like Carl has really "Roved" Texas. Poor Molly. She must really be down in the dumps. Read it and weep, John. :>)
washingtonpost.com Senate Democrats Face Tough '04 Election Retirements, Fundraising Changes Loom as Obstacles to Gaining a Majority
By Helen Dewar Washington Post Staff Writer Sunday, February 9, 2003; Page A04
Three months after losing their majority in the Senate, Democrats face some daunting obstacles to their hopes of winning it back and risk losing rather than gaining seats in 2004, according to early campaign analyses.
Democrats' fundraising difficulties have grown more serious with passage of new campaign finance rules that severely limit access to their most easily raised cash. And unlike last year, they will have more seats at stake than will Republicans, including two held by top party leaders.
Several of the most competitive races are likely to be in states that President Bush carried in 2000.
But the Democrats' biggest problem of all may lie in the potential retirements of senators in five toss-up or GOP-leaning southern states.
The announced retirement plans of Sen. Zell Miller (D-Ga.) opens a seat in a state where Republicans unexpectedly ousted a Democratic senator and governor last fall. Sens. Bob Graham (D-Fla.) and John Edwards (D-N.C.) may drop reelection campaigns to run for president, giving Republicans high hopes in those two swing states. In addition, Democratic Sens. Ernest F. Hollings (S.C.) and John Breaux (La.) have not said they will definitely run for reelection, possibly putting two more Democratic seats at risk.
Republicans, meanwhile, have a few vulnerable incumbents in states such as Illinois. But they have no impending retirements in Democratic-leaning states.
With economic uncertainty, the possibility of war in Iraq and the difficulty of assessing Bush's popularity 21 months from now , it is far too early to predict House and Senate margins after next year's elections. This is especially true for the Senate, which Republicans control by a 51-49 margin that was secured by about 35,000 votes in the nation's closest races last fall.
The Senate has a history of early indicators that can prove hollow by Election Day. Last year, Republicans were defending more seats than were Democrats, and they had an early run of retirements that prompted predictions of Democratic gains. As it turned out, however, the GOP lost only one incumbent's seat, and new Republicans replaced all the party's retirees. Meantime, Republicans replaced Democrats in Georgia, Missouri and Minnesota.
In light of recent history, independent observers and strategists in both parties hedge their bets about the eventual outcome. But they agree that Democrats begin at a disadvantage.
"I do think the Democrats start on the ropes," said Jennifer E. Duffy, the chief Senate analyst for the independent Cook Political Report. "But with some breaks and good recruiting and a minimum number of retirements, they might be okay and the election could be a wash."
Even with the possibility of some breaks, however, Democrats say little these days about taking back control of the Senate, Duffy said. "If the goal is to lower expectations, they have certainly succeeded."
Sen. Jon S. Corzine (D-N.J.), chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, said, "I wouldn't call myself overly optimistic," but he contended the party's prospects are brighter than they appear on the surface. He cited the party's aggressive fundraising plans, its candidate recruitment efforts and the uncertainty of the late-2004 political terrain.
Sen. George Allen of Virginia, Corzine's GOP counterpart, declined to discuss the Democrats' problems but said, "I'd much rather be going in with our team than theirs."
The outlook is similarly bleak for House Democrats, who also face fundraising and retirement problems. They need to pick up 12 seats to win the majority, a difficult task considering the relative dearth of truly competitive districts, party strategists say. Bush won a majority of votes in most of the 40 or so House districts expected to be in play next year.
Texas could prove especially problematic for Democrats. Republicans, who now control the governor's office and legislature, are looking to redraw the state's congressional districts, which could make six or more seats much more winnable for the GOP.
"It could be miserable election," said a top strategist for House Democrats.
Ironically, it is the fallout from a bill heavily supported by congressional Democrats that could present the party with one of its biggest problems. The McCain-Feingold campaign finance bill, which took effect Nov. 6, prohibits the national political parties from receiving or spending the unlimited donations from corporations, unions and individuals known as "soft money," which totaled nearly $500 million in the 2002 election cycle.
A recently completed study by Brigham Young University's Center for the Study of Elections and Democracy points up the problem. The two parties were competitive in raising soft dollars: $250 million for the Republicans and $246 million for the Democrats, much of it spent on television advertising that indirectly boosted the party's Senate and House candidates.
But the GOP had a nearly 2 to 1 advantage in collecting all-important "hard money." It can be raised only in limited amounts ($2,000, double the previous limit), but it can be used directly by parties and candidates for any legitimate political purpose. Republicans raised $402 million in hard money, while Democrats raised $220 million. If anything, this disparity is likely to grow, said David Magleby, an author of the study.
The new law, named for its Senate sponsors John McCain (R-Ariz.) and Russell D. Feingold (D-Wis.), is being challenged in court, and a Supreme Court ruling is possible by the end of the year. While critics have contested the soft-money ban, legal experts say it is more likely to survive than are other aspects of the law, meaning it would be in effect for next year's campaigns.
Corzine, former co-chairman of the Goldman Sachs investment firm, said he intends a major expansion of the Senate Democrats' quest for hard money, including more emphasis on direct mail and expanded efforts to tap the business world. But finances remain a major concern for many Democrats, especially for an election cycle that includes California and other expensive states.
"Corzine is as good as anyone, but, if you look at the capacity of Republicans, it's just scary," said Democratic consultant Jim Margolis.
Senate retirements are potentially more critical than money. With the defeat of former senator Max Cleland (D-Ga.) last November, many questioned whether any Democrat except the conservative Miller could hold the second seat. But Miller decided not to seek another term and pointedly said he would not endorse any candidate seeking to succeed him.
In Florida, Graham would probably be a shoo-in for reelection, but he had indicated he was leaning toward a White House run before recent heart surgery. Aides said he is fully recovering.
In North Carolina, state law allows Edwards to run simultaneously for reelection and for president, but Democratic insiders predict he will pick one or the other. Unlike Graham, Edwards could have a tough reelection campaign if he decides to stay in the Senate.
Rumors continue to circulate in South Carolina that Hollings may retire after 36 years in the Senate, but aides said recently they expect him to run again. Like Edwards, Hollings won narrowly six years ago and could have stiff competition if he decides to try again.
Democratic Senate leader Thomas A. Daschle (S.D.) and Democratic Whip Harry M. Reid (Nev.) are up for reelection next year. Reid, who had an excruciatingly close call when he last ran, could face a challenge from any one of several prominent Republicans.
In South Dakota, former representative John Thune (R-S.D.), who narrowly lost a Senate bid last year, is under pressure to run against Daschle. Serious races, even if the challengers fall short, could limit the help that Daschle and Reid could lend to other campaigns.
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