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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: RealMuLan who wrote (75812)	2/19/2003 8:52:00 PM
From: aladin	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 281500

Yiwu, First, no one knows for sure that NK has nuclear weapon. Second, even if it has, it will use it as a bargaining power. Be careful what you wish for. India already has them and so too could Japan and Taiwan. Its in neither of our interests for that to happen - saying its ok for North Korea opens the door to the others. John

To: RealMuLan who wrote (75812)	2/19/2003 10:20:50 PM
From: LindyBill	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 281500

China has NO desire, whatsoever, to dominant others. All they want is to live a better life and not to be lectured by others, that is all. I think this is a bit "Pollyanna," Yiwu. They are enjoying making the Japanese Businessmen "Kowtow" to them and remembering the way the Japs acted in the '30s. There is no doubt that China will be the number one story of this century. They will run Asia, that's for sure.

To: RealMuLan who wrote (75812)	2/19/2003 11:12:14 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 281500

<China has NO desire, whatsoever, to dominant others> Let's review a little history: Since the Revolution: Korea-war 1950s Soviet Union 1960 major battle, along Amur river India 1960 I think, they grabbed some land on India's northern frontier, and have never given it back Vietnam- around 1978, they sent an army into Vietnam, I forget why Spratly islands in the South China Sea -occupied by China, 1980s?, claimed by several other nations And that's a nearly complete list of all their neighbors. The only bordering nation they haven't invaded is Burma. Oh, yes, and they make regular threats to retake Taiwan by force. The only thing that stops them is the U.S. Navy. So, to sum up: For the last 50 years, they've been bullying and threatening all their neighbors; they have a habit of resorting to force to achieve their national aims. ------------------ Here's one scenario re N. Korea: 1. N Korea develops nukes, and the missiles to deliver them, and proves it by testing them. 2. Their neighbors (S. Korea, Japan, maybe Taiwan as well), decide they need nukes too. 3. A regional Cold War develops, complete with an arms race and MAD doctrine. NE Asia becomes as Chock-Full-O'-nukes as Germany during the Cold War. That's the optimistic scenario, which assumes nobody does anything stupid, nobody paints themselves into a corner, nobody miscalculates how the other side(s) will react.

To: RealMuLan who wrote (75812)	2/20/2003 12:31:16 AM
From: kumar	Respond to of 281500

<China has NO desire, whatsoever, to dominant others> Tibet ?

To: RealMuLan who wrote (75812)	2/20/2003 11:00:12 AM
From: michael97123	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

"China has tried to pursued NK to open their economy, and start some kind of economic reform, ever since 1978, but their leader does not listen. I guess China has done what it could. " Yiwu, I thought it interesting that yesterday NK seemed to say that the US was obstructing their improvement of their communist system. That probably means some liberaization economically without sacrificing the current leadership. Perhaps they would try to follow the china model after all? What concerns me most though is that the chinese model started with Deng after the ravages of the Cultural Revolution and Kim Jung Il playing the role of Deng is a real stretch. mike