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Politics : High Tolerance Plasticity -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Warpfactor who wrote (18978)	2/24/2003 9:29:24 AM
From: jim_p	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 23153

I'm in agreement with the Bank Credit Analyst. The bull is back!! The Bank Credit Analyst 27 March 2003 III. PERSPECTIVES ON THE STOCK MARKET OUTLOOK l A cyclical buying opportunity in equities is approaching. The liquidity environment is extremely favorable and investors should start to focus on the prospect of a slowly improving earnings picture, as current geopolitical tensions ease. l Historically, the market delivered strong gains in the year following a bear market. l Valuation excesses have been unwound. The market is not unambiguously cheap, as has typically occurred in previous bear markets, but the Fed™s aggressive monetary easing should prevent a major washout in valuations. l The crushing bear market has dealt a severe blow to the cult of equity. Fragile investor psychology will not stand in the way of periodic cyclical rallies, but it will be a major obstacle to a lasting bull market. l At best, stocks are likely to trade within a broad range for several years. Achieving decent returns will depend on successful market timing and good sector as well as stock selection. The U.S. equity market is caught between powerful opposing forces, and there is considerable uncertainty about how it will all play out. On the positive side, the liquidity environment could hardly be more favorable, the valuation excesses of the bubble years have been largely unwound, and the deep earnings recession has ended. On the negative side, the market has not become unam- biguously cheap, as typically happens at the end of a deep bear market. Also, investors™ appetite to own stocks may have been permanently damaged, implying that it could be difficult for a new bull market to gain traction. Meanwhile, there is a wide range of opinion about the outlook for the economy and earnings, and about geopolitical developments. From a long-term perspective, the U.S. equity market will, at best, be in a broad trading range for many years. This means that it will be important to catch the shorter-term swings in order to generate decent returns. One of those opportunities should exist when current geopolitical tensions ease, and our bias is to be positive toward the market from a cyclical standpoint. Valuation: No Longer Expensive, But Equity market valuations have improved dramatically since the market peaked almost three years ago. Currently, the S&P 500 is trading at around 15 times forward earnings compared to a peak multiple of 24 three

To: Warpfactor who wrote (18978)	2/24/2003 10:29:00 AM
From: el_gaviero	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 23153

Warp, oops, didn’t see your reply to my post until just now. I guess we have very different views about the Middle East. I think your argument is useless that because Israel is part of Western Civilization, and the Palestinians are not, we should support Israel. It establishes a principle so broad and so vapid (help Western Civ, hurt everybody else) that where it gets applied depends on other considerations. The notion that al-Qaeda attacked us because we are free and democratic is self-serving. Osama bin Laden SAID he attacked for two reasons, because our troops were in the holy land, and because of our one-sided support of Israel against the Palestinians. I have thought from the time of the 9/11 that we should wipe out al-Qaeda, then quietly and unostentatiously comply with its demands. “The Palestinian extremists and Arafat are the initiators of violence.” Factually not true. Sharon, in the fall of 2000 (if I remember correctly) visited the Temple Mount on a Friday afternoon at about the time that Mosque was letting out. He did this knowing full well that his presence would be a provocation. The next day Israeli soldiers went in and killed seven of the usual mob of rock throwing kids. Sharon, who was at the time running for the post of Prime Minister, set all of these events in motion AS A CAMPAIGN STRATEGY. That is to say, Sharon set in motion the Second Intifada. To say that the Palestinians are the initiators of the violence is classic Big Lie. “…it is not too much of a stretch to see that, if the Palestinians would halt their attacks, then the Israelis would discontinue theirs…” Depends on what you mean by attack. I would argue that the aggressors in the region have been the Israeli. All during the 1990s, please keep in mind, while the so-called peace process was occurring, Israel allowed 200,000 settlers to move into the West Bank, and establish seventy-some communities. The sad fact of the matter is that Israel never for a moment bargained in good faith during the so-called Peace Process, where land was to be swapped for peace. (Nor, of course, did the feckless, corrupt and despicable Arafat. ((((My guess is that both sides were going along with the charade of a peace process because of pressure from American presidents, who wanted dramatic Rose Garden photo ops.))))) “… anti-semites everywhere try their best to distort what is painfully obvious to the non-stupid,” Warp, a word to the wise. I recommend that you save your epithets for a little later in the game. To pull them out, after all, is an admission of a weak position. And this one especially -- anti-Semitism -- has been applied so often and so universally that it just doesn’t have much stickum left. The clear and obvious fact of the matter is that the Israeli, as allies, are more than dishonest and unreliable. They are treacherous, and will murder us when they think it suits their purpose. If you don’t believe me, look up the facts about the Liberty (which, if I remember correctly, was the name of the American naval ship attack by Israeli warplanes, in which 30 American seamen were killed. The attack was an attempt by the Israeli to make it seem as if the ship had been attacked by Egypt. Or, to cite another example, look at the Pollard spy case.) If we were to follow George Washington’s advise about entangling alliances, or Lord Palmerston’s counsel ---- “Her Majesty’s government does not have friends, Her Majesty’s government only has interests” – we would wash our hands of the Israeli. They and the Palestinians are two weasels fighting in a hole. Let ‘em fight. As it now stands, Israel and its defenders in this country are just one more interest group --- along with the trial lawyers, the National Education Association, the farmers, the poverty entrepreneurs --- who have captured the wheels of government, and now use the brothel that is Washington either to enrich themselves at public expense, or to protect themselves from the consequences of bad decisions, or both.