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To: rogermci® who wrote (8154)	2/23/2003 8:02:05 PM
From: velociraptor_	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10157

I think one has to also remember that the market is not always contrarian. There are "recognition" waves within ewave structure, where a large number of people do get it right.

To: rogermci® who wrote (8154)	2/23/2003 8:22:28 PM
From: Drbob512	Respond to of 10157

rogermci: I have utilized Investors Intelligence as a mainstay for a sentiment indicator for the past 25 years, and it was popular with institutions then as well since it was one of the first developed. Not to say that AAII doesn't have its followers and its validity. But if you look at the daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly charts and stochastics (and other technical indicators), along with e-wave counts, and the Summation Index, it all points to the next major move being down, imho. Unless the bulls can get a heavy volume rally going very soon, the Summation will turn back down and when it turns down from current levels (Nasdaq Summ at -579 and NYSE Summ at -238), there are very sharp declines historically. When we failed to take out 9077, i posted at my thread that the next 500 and 1000 point moves in the Dow would be down, and so it was. Not to say we can't get a bit more of this technical bounce early this week. But much greater chance of 7197 retest than 9077 retest, imho, in the next 2-4 weeks... But we shall see as no one has given me a crystal ball, LOL! Good trading, Dr.Bob

To: rogermci® who wrote (8154)	2/24/2003 12:58:36 AM
From: lifeisgood	Respond to of 10157

Hi Roger, The only fly in the ointment with your read of the AAII index is the historically low VXN and QQV which both indicate significant complacency. Both are consistent with an impending large move down, notwithstanding the AAII bearishness. best... LIG

To: rogermci® who wrote (8154)	2/24/2003 1:58:27 PM
From: bcrafty	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10157

Roger, for some more perspective Here are the previous few weeks AAII figures from someone who keeps track of it on a regular basis. That is a large influx of bears this past week, I have to admit. Message 18607011 boomspeed.com Chart courtesy of John Madarasz Personally, though, I don't pay much attention to AAII percentages or Rydex numbers, but instead only use the VIX as a more reliable indicator of intermediate-term trends on sentiment. Right now I'm waiting for us to reach 20 or 50, whichever way we end up going; I was expecting this kind of sideways movement shortly after the beginning of the January decline. Also, the 10 dma on the P/C seems to indicate a bounce now until it gets to the .7 area. photos.yahoo.com Chart compliments of shoreco