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Strategies & Market Trends : Disciplined Investing, especially the NAIC way -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: The Philosopher who wrote (397)	3/17/2003 1:13:24 PM
From: - with a K	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 469

I did some more homework and redid my SSG for ADP and also decided to pass. Reasons: insider selling; lower margins than Moody's and Paychex; slower earnings and rev growth; lower ROA and rev/employee than industry ave. I checked consensus on First Call and then used estimated earnings of $2.17 for 2007, which seemed conservative but defendable since their warning. I also scaled back my judgment on high PE to 21 and used a low of $19. Came out a strong hold. "Q and Y" are the labels given in Stock Analyst Plus to the PERT Quarterly and Yearly report. As I mentioned, for some reason OPS/NAIC only gives a few quarter's worth of data for the PERT report. So I couldn't see the declining trend in revenue growth, other than eyeballing it on page 1. But you're right on the decline. Line C in SA Plus is Debt to Equity, which I like to look at as another management score. I always thought it was a shame Toolkit doesn't include it. So what are your or your club buying? Edit: My shopping list of stocks that I want to look into further include CE (own already), FNF (not as classic NAIC stock!) MIK (own; been beaten hard but I think retail will come back), L (definetly not a NAIC stock but both value and grown fund managers I follow have taken substantial bets on L; why? what am I missing?) RD (mentioned before; nice yield) TGT (retailer I want to study) and LIZ (retail). Also want to study CHTT, a consumer products company ranked 1 by VL when it was at $21 and is now below $13. - Kris