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Strategies & Market Trends : Disciplined Investing, especially the NAIC way -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: - with a K who wrote (398)	3/17/2003 4:18:10 PM
From: The Philosopher	Respond to of 469

As I mentioned, for some reason OPS/NAIC only gives a few quarter's worth of data for the PERT report. Are you sure that's a problem with the data and not with Stock Analyst's ability to read the data? When I do a SSG from NAIC data using Toolkit I get the full PERT going back several years. So the data is there, apparently. As to what we're buying, we just added PLB (fortunately right before the run-up), will add BMET if it comes down a bit, are thinking of adding to our ORLY holding. Are looking at WAG, but havn't done the full study of it yet. I'll look at your suggetions in a day or two, but the next few days are full of other work.

To: - with a K who wrote (398)	3/21/2003 4:42:59 PM
From: - with a K	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 469

Any thoughts on MSFT as a LT hold? I am considering trimming back my MSFT position for a number of reasons but I'm on the fence. Anyone care to comment? Concerns: - it's my largest holding and I think it's too large of a position in my portfolio (twice the next largest) - Want to reduce my exposure to tech. Yeah, should've done it three years ago! <g> - Even with its cash, muscle, and incredible margins, I'm thinking it may be "yesterday's story." I see VL estimates earnings growth on only 10% vs. historical 32% - May suffer from the "law of large numbers" and will find difficulty growing. - Weak IT market....when will it recover? - I'm not convinced Bush's tax plan will go through as advertised, and the hope that MSFT would raise its dividends again with the tax change was what was keeping me in this far. A SSG I did using ave high PE of 33 (too generous going forward?) and high EPS estimate of $1.19 came out a buy up to $24.92, so it's quite near the hold zone. Once again, I don't have a accurate PERT but I imagine it would show some scary declines. Any comments? (Maybe I'm just trying to talk myself into selling some!!!) - Kris