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Strategies & Market Trends : Classic TA Workplace -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: AllansAlias who wrote (68707)	3/17/2003 11:02:52 AM
From: Shack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

Do you get the impression that no shorts have worked for a few weeks Yup, all my best wins have been longs. INTU was great though if you hopped off at $40-g AMGN, I took my lumps, but they were small lumps, could have been way worse. I am still looking to take a shot at ERTS shortly. Bears' only hope is that we just (or have nearly) completed a flat out of Feb 13, it looks that way on quite a few issues. The move off the March 12 low now looks like 5 waves to me in tech (60-min). ALternate is moonshot for me.

To: AllansAlias who wrote (68707)	3/17/2003 11:05:28 AM
From: The Freep	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 209892

Allan -- the huge preponderance of QQQ calls doesn't concern you? I suppose it actually works nicely in a "iii of C" scenario: delta hedging and squeeze equal power. Still, it gives me pause. I still need to see more before I get on long, though I stopped out of every short on this morning's reversal. I do respect the breakouts I'm seeing here (on volume!), but I actually think we're in the "war rally" already, and we might just sell the news. If we really are going to 1300 ndx, I've got lots of time. On one level I hope we get there, cuz that means that if there's a war, it's fast and as painless as possible. the freep

To: AllansAlias who wrote (68707)	3/17/2003 11:41:13 AM
From: Perspective	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 209892

Well, I wish I could say I anticipated the vigor of this rally, but I at least called it for what it was just as soon as it launched: Message 18700717 Message 18700512 I apologize that it didn't get posted right here, but having the E-wiggle zone is diluting things somewhat. I reiterate, I don't know how long or how far this thing runs. I can make a couple of guesses, but I just don't know. What I do know, I said before, and I'll say again: this is the Iraq resolution rally, with perhaps a little rate-cut anticipation built in, but this is not even close to a repeat of 1991. Note how there was no talk in 1991 of a war rally and sentiment was terrible; this is the exact inverse of the situation today. See how the rally has launched in anticipation of the war? This is "buy-the-rumor" and virtually guarantees a "sell-the-news" response. Things are sooooooooo different from 1991. 1. Sentiment is totally opposite on Wall Street with everyone salivating to buy the relief rally 2. Mutual fund cash is <5% vs >13% 3. Tech buildout behind us vs. dead ahead of us 4. Post tech-bubble hangover remains 5. Interest rates are virtually zero 6. Deflation in finished goods is here 7. > $1 trillion in home equity has been extracted in the building of an enormous home mortgage bubble 8. Structured finance has been played in ways unimaginable in 1991 9. Toxic derivatives litter the financial landscape. Transference of risk is great as long as all counterparties are rational and acting to reduce their risk level, but that is clearly not the case 10. Trade deficit is now >5% GDP, several times 1991 11. US$ is under significant pressure I am virtually flat here, thank God, but looking to take my first stab at the short side around COMP 1420/SPX 970, with a tight stop to reverse a potentially huge mistake. The last chance for bears today is SPX 850, which may be holding things back right now. But, given that it's lunch time, I could see a minor two-hour correction, followed by further new highs later this afternoon. The key thing to remember here is that there won't likely be any substantial selling now until after there truly is a resolution of the Iraq situation. This rally is in anticipation of resolution, so there's no sense stepping in front of it until one can see the "sell-the-news" excuse show up. The obvious, easy event would be if we launched a unilateral strike; I'd probably dump hedges at the market in that case. Other peace-oriented outcomes might be trickier to trade. Regardless, there's no way I'd go net long in this market. For those of you with the cahones to do so, you are of different constitution than I am. I can't stomach greater-fool games, not even for a day trade. I can only trade the direction that points toward fundamentals. When technicals and fundamentals are at odds, I don't trade. Period. Good luck to all. These are challenging times for traders, our peoples, and our leaders. Pray for good fortune for our world - it needs all the help it can get. <ng> BC