Hello Hawk Ron, Did you say, 'the Spanish Inquisition'?
Yes, that was a rhetorical question from Monty Python the Flying Circus, and not from DAK.
But then, no, you most definitely did not in any manner or form refer to ‘the Spanish Inquisition’.
You spoke of 'demographics', but not in the sense that ACFlyer meant, as in, oh, who is going to buy the stock certificates when the baby boomers need to sell, and is otherwise not able to work to earn their keep, to pay for things so that companies can generate a profit so as to distribute a dividend, leading to more substantive support of valuations, boost capital gains, and, eventually, result in tax revenues that can be used to finance nation-building, peace brokering, and programs meant to preserve resources for the natives’ enlightening scheme, or to simply listen in on their phone calls and then bulldoze their homes.
You spoke of ‘demographics’ in the sense that folks different from you are getting more plentiful, they may not care much for you, and they may keep a grudge.
The two varieties of ‘demographics’ issues are of course related, connected, or getting to be. See here, something about Demographics and Destiny Message 18763947 .
I do not know answers to many big questions, but I sense that events are getting complicated, as in not going according to media-expected script, and even more worrisomely, beginning to imitate another Script from another time, in another quagmire. Oops, I used that “Q” word!
It is not too early for us to at least start thinking about ‘quagmires’, ‘perpetual wars’, and ‘never appearing peace’, even though it is definitely too early to say for sure that we will be in a quagmire, just as it was once too early to say whether we were in a bubble looking out, or outside a bubble peering in. You know, old text books and dusty archives do not hold possibilities for answers.
Events are getting so complicate that we do not even know what to make of them anymore. I use the word ‘we’ not meaning you and I, but more referring to the puzzled I and my kind.
Tell me, what do you make of this puzzle, Message 18764902 , as it seems to puzzle folks who make a living from reading sheep entrails, sniffing cat nips, and looking at things through magnifying glasses, those who listen to Echelon instead of “Don’t Worry, Be Happy”.
Now, I do not want to leave you with the impression that all events are puzzling to me. This here for example, Message 18764904 , tells me that ‘oops, more nation building to be tried, except we do not know which nation’. Do you know?
I mean, shazam, things are getting to a point where even Maurice may get bothered on his side of the closed safety hatch Message 18764892 .
You will understand that whatever your explanations, I will have to make some adjustments simply because you seem to believe in what you believe in so fervently, and so your judgment is necessarily suspect in its soundness. For example, I am glad we had this little exchange, where you so clearly failed to anticipate, due to strong unwavering belief in the officialdom siliconinvestor.com
Wednesday, Nov 22, 2000 … I agree that surpluses may not be as strong as projected next year, but in my conversations (including one congressman while we were both having lunch), the $200 billion/year surplus is based upon a growth rate of 3%, a slower rate of growth below where we have been for the past year.
So having that extra cash available, and the political will to buy out the publicly held national debt, that should provide additional support to the US dollar.
Do you remember my response to you at the time? Yes, this is a rhetorical question? And to which I have the answer given back then Message 14869036 We are in disagreement on the longer term, but mostly on the possibilities, and I am not certain that I am right. What then remains to be decided is how to play the possibilities
Actually, I would remember my answer even in the absence of reference links, because my answer is generally such, as in maybe A, perhaps B, but why believe in certainty when one can take account of a range of most likely outcomes.
Take another example, on the issue of Nasdaq index, I wrote to you Message 14861804 Just for example, if we were to use NASDAQ index in 1989 at 500 (plus or minus a few points) as starting point, and apply a long term rate of return of say, 15%, then a nasty correction can take the NASDAQ to 2300. If we use 10% as the long term return rate, then the correction of NASDAQ can take us to 1400. We know by experience of others that the markets always reach for extremes, in due time. Should any of the above two cases materialize, all financial institutions the world over will suffer, the faith in all currencies will drop, regardless of national pedigree, more so for previously highly valued ones. Problem is that the currencies can not all depreciate against each other, but must depreciate against a standard.
Had the above passage been written today, you would have said ‘Jay, you are boring me with details’. But, alas, I wrote those words to you back in, oh, let’s see, November of … no, not 2002, not 2001, but 2000. Well, since that time I am better of by more than 20%, and given that I do not revalue the passive portion of my NAV (bonds and real estate), that means the actively managed slice went up better than 40%. You are right, a lucky streak, so pay no attention.
Can you say ‘prophetic’? That too is a rhetorical question
Oh yes, here is another good one Message 14869036 On the trade deficit, it drives manufacturing asset rich old economy into the ocean in favor of human capital rich new economy. Uncharted territory. Human beings are fickle., also dated November 2000. I can only hope that I saved some folks some anguish.
Ok, enough taunting and posturing. It is now time to get out the crystal ball to shed some vision of the demographic problem that has been bothering you so.
To me, every bit you wrote can be, based on any number of officialdom pronouncements, subsequent media parroting, and optimistically, private intentions. Alternatively, what we have now is a convoluted continuation of a 900-year ancient conflict, and the imposition of the Israel-Palestine-Lebanon Script from a small corner of the world on a larger space. America has simply decided to more directly participate in the conflict.
The officialdom and the wider world are clearly worried that some natural path of progression of the conflict in pace has very awful technological possibilities. This worrying has been leveraged by various groups for their own purposes, even as resolving the worry is also in their interest.
I think it is a fair assumption that WMD will become commonplace. We can worry about it, or adapt to it, simply taking the possibilities into account.
The outcome of the conflict? Who knows, and I doubt you and I will see the final resolution in our lifetime, and in my case, I prefer to not see the final resolution in my lifetime, much like skipping out on a bad movie before it ends.
But, oh, how can I forget, you know the outcome, elections will take place in Iraq because Saddam will be gone, attitudes will undergo adjustment in Palestine because Arafat will be no more.
You may be attributing much more power to those two individuals than the facts warrant, or, OTOH, you may have committed too much faith in other individuals.
Chugs, Jay |
