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Strategies & Market Trends : Heinz Blasnik- Views You Can Use -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Wyätt Gwyön who wrote (60)	4/10/2003 2:39:55 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 4905

I really doubt Japan Banks can avoid resolution in K-Winter Japan has defied laws of economic nature for several years their banks continue to avoid marking to market the recent March Repatriation was met with a thud on Nikkei usually the influx of funds from abroad lifts stocks some govt leaders have repeatedly let the banks off the hook the banks have smartly delayed, hoping for govt bailouts now their govt is actively purchasing thru formal programs what an incredibly strange wretching death story who'da thunk it back in 1980 ??? well, back to the world of reality regarding K-Winter I continue to marvel at the awesome force and power of K-W in the USA, my view is that the next and final sectors to be dealt with by powerful K-Wave forces are: - midgrade corporate debt (e.g. Ford, GMotors) - real estate (single family residence) - Treasury Bonds (TWOs, FIVEs, esp TENs) start with a whack of Ford, then teeter toward bankruptcy that is the early warning signal for real estate, which has for two years been breathing fumes off Fed Funds patch blazing efforts mortgage finance is an accident waiting to happen, which will begin with Fanny Mae FNM flipped the bird at StLouis Fed Gov Poole apparently then comes realization that price inflation is inevitable this will surround, then attack Trez market this will be a strange development imho though since evidence of price inflation will continue to be seen in producer supplies and energy supplies, which will hurt corporations by slicing profit margins further on the household side, price inflation will render consumer purchasing power as diminished this price inflation will see evidence, while the economy slowly glides into recession, with the slowdown driven by pullbacks in consumer spending they are simply overloaded with debt, losing jobs at increasing pace we speak of inflationary recession -- STAGFLATION I consider Stagflation to be the best case scenario ahead which brings me back to Japan as consumption diminishes, Asian imports of all kinds will reduce the recent new Nikkei lows signal to me an imminent rise in the YEN combined with a drop in US consumer spending in 2002 we saw the EURO rise versus the US$ but Japanese dynamics are amazingly strong relative to currencies their trade surplus versus USA is at +2.5% of Japanese GDP a rather strong money flow to withstand for BoJ I dont think they can handle it the K-Winter will deal with all safe havens for capital it will also attack all cowardly havens for capital LIKE THE JAPANESE BANKS the US Federal Reserve has been hyperactive recently they simply have too many fingers in the dike already I dont think the Japanese Yen can be prevented from rising in 2003 last year was the EURO's turn; this year is the YEN's turn gonna be wild but one thing for sure -- US is killing its currency slowly first with economic desperation now with military adventure the market is factoring in a quick war, not a costly occupation, which is precisely what I expect, to be followed by related incursions elsewhere in MidEast most likely, Syria, Iran, Pakistan the costs are gonna be horrific, enough to accelerate the US$ downhill / jim

To: Wyätt Gwyön who wrote (60)	4/16/2003 12:20:13 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	1 Recommendation Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 4905

an important point here is that after Japan's RE and stock market bubbles burst, Japanese capital exports were instrumental in fostering the 90's bubble in the Western economies. Japan is the world's banker - should repatriation become a serious issue (and imo it WILL one day) , a descent into a global depression should indeed be expected. note in this context that the Asian crisis of '97 - '98 which culminated in Russia's collapse was largely a result of Japanese banks calling in loans across South East Asia. as i've mentioned, the huge hedge fund industry also relies on a lot of Japanese funding - iow, Japan's banks have been equally instrumental in creating the 'hedge fund bubble'. this is a largely overlooked grave potential danger to the markets. as always in financial matters, great quantity assures diminished quality at the margin. btw. a few months ago a Japanese hedge fund went from being in reasonably good shape to total wipe-out in a matter of weeks. its name, i kid you not, was 'Eifuku'. the English pronunciation was basically a warning to investors in the fund...